01 Jul 2022 | 06:46 PM UTC
Libya: Heightened security likely in Tripoli through at least late July /update 2
Increased security likely in Tripoli, Libya, through late July amid heightened tensions between rival militia groups. Clashes possible.
Event
The Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) will likely maintain a heightened security posture in Tripoli through at least late July amid continued tensions with militias loyal to the Government of National Solidarity (GNS) headed by Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha. Clashes have regularly erupted between rival militias in recent weeks, notably including June 11. Forces loyal to Bashagha have occasionally entered Tripoli and tried to seize power from GNU Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah.
Troop movements are likely in and around Tripoli when militia groups opposing the GNU attempt to congregate in the capital. Further confrontations between opposing groups are possible. Militia deployments could cause disruptions to state operations; transport and business disruptions are also possible.
Context
Political instability and civil unrest will likely persist in Libya following the parliament's approval of a new government. On March 1, Libya's parliament voted for a new government despite the incumbent prime minister's rejection of the poll. Bashagha emerged as prime minister with a new government consisting of three deputy prime ministers, 29 ministers, and six ministers of state. The vote highlights the continuing power struggle with interim Prime Minister Dbeibah, who was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021.
As Dbeibah has pledged to not cede power, the March 1 vote will almost certainly produce two parallel administrations, thwarting UN efforts to ease political division in Libya. Libya was previously divided between east- and west-based rival administrations supported by various militias and foreign actors. Bashagha's new government risks triggering a new power struggle between the eastern-based assembly and Dbeibah's western-based interim government.
Advice
Exercise caution in Tripoli. Liaise with trusted contacts for updates. Avoid areas where armed forces appear to be gathering. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.
