Sri Lanka: Civil unrest likely to persist following significant protests in Colombo, July 9 /update 21

Event

Protests and heightened security are likely to persist in Colombo and elsewhere in Sri Lanka in the coming days following major protests in Colombo's Fort area July 9. Thousands of people remain congregated in Fort as of the afternoon of July 9 demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Earlier, protesters stormed and occupied President's House and the Presidential Secretariat. Minor confrontations between police and protesters have occurred. Several people have been injured. There have been no reports of fatalities. The location of Rajapaksa is unclear; however, reports suggest that the president left the area before the protesters arrived. Prior to the start of the day's protests, officials lifted a curfew in parts of Western Province ahead of the demonstrations. An indefinite curfew had been issued late July 8.

Further protests are likely nationwide in the coming days. Since late March, demonstrations have occurred in several cities, including Colombo, Galle, and Kandy. Activists typically hold sit-ins or marches at or near fuel stations, hospitals, government buildings, politicians' residences, public squares, railway stations, and along major roadways connecting cities. Trade unions have intermittently held nationwide strikes. Violence involving lethal weapons has occurred during demonstrations; significant clashes occurred between pro-and anti-government supporters May 9, mainly in Colombo, resulting in nine deaths and over 200 injuries. Colombo's Galle Face Green has been a focal point for protests; other popular rally venues in the city include the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) office, Colombo Fort Magistrate Court, Fort Railway Station, the prime ministerial residence of Temple Trees, and the Nelum Pokuna intersection.

Heightened security measures likely remain in place nationwide, especially in Colombo. Authorities no longer enforce a state of public emergency or curfew but could reimpose these orders in response to security assessments. Security personnel may be empowered to open fire at individuals deemed to harm public property, violate curfew orders, engage in illegal acts, or harm others. Localized transport disruptions and a heavy police presence are likely near any large gatherings that may materialize. Protests could turn violent quickly, as security forces are usually quick to resort to the use of force to disperse unruly gatherings. Businesses in areas experiencing violent protests and/or heightened security measures could close temporarily as a precaution. Power outages and fuel shortages will likely continue interrupting business operations in the medium term, potentially prompting further disruptions and protests.

Context

Various groups have held protests in Sri Lanka in recent months to denounce worsening economic conditions and the government's response to the situation. A lack of foreign reserves to service external payments has caused an economic crisis, with worsening shortages of essential goods such as food, fuel, and medications. Fuel shortages and power outages have, in turn, disrupted water supply, freight and passenger transport, and internet services. The country suspended foreign debt payments April 12, with USD 4 billion payments due in 2022. The government is in talks to obtain financial assistance from the IMF, marking the 17th time the nation has sought a bailout from the global lender since its independence.

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party led by former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has lost its majority in the parliament as several coalition partners and lawmakers withdrew support. No other party or coalition has staked a claim to form an alternative government in the 225-seat assembly. The impact of the storming of the President's House in Colombo July 9 may prompt political leaders to implement reforms and a new government in the coming days.

Various governments have revised travel advisories for Sri Lanka. New Zealand and the UK have revised their travel risk ratings to advise against nonessential travel to Sri Lanka as of July 6. Other governments such as Australia, Canada, France, and Saudi Arabia, continue to advise against nonessential travel to Sri Lanka until further notice. Several countries are also cautioning their citizens in Sri Lanka to avoid demonstrations and plan for shortages of essential items. The US advises its citizens to reconsider travel due to fuel and medicine shortages. Various countries may adjust their travel risk assessments in the coming days.

Advice

Confirm business and medical appointments, deliveries, road status, and transport reservations in advance. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Abide by any curfew orders. Avoid all protests due to the potential violence. Do not attempt to cross protester roadblocks; wait for the police to clear them before proceeding. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow additional travel time in Colombo and other urban centers through at least July. Plan for long queues to obtain essential items; ensure contingency plans account for the continued access to essential goods and services. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.