Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 12 /update 158

Event

Russian forces conducted limited ground offensive operations in eastern Ukraine July 12 amid an operational pause, but stepped up artillery and missile strikes against Ukrainian settlements in the area. Moscow continued to attempt to advance on Slovyansk from the Russian-held city of Izyum to the northwest, but remained unable to break through Ukrainian defenders on the Mazanivka, Krasnopillya, and Dolyna line.

Further east, Russian forces in Lysychansk are attempting to drive west towards Siversk, reaching as far as Verkhnokamyanske and Hryhorivka, while troops are attempting to advance on Bakhmut from Berestove in the northeast and Klynove in the southeast. No significant fighting was reported in this area over the previous 24 hours. The death toll following Russian artillery strikes on Chasiv Yar July 9 has increased to 38.

In the south of the country, Moscow is largely focused on recapturing areas lost to Ukrainian forces and solidifying defensive positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Ukrainian forces are conducting intensive shelling of suspected Russian positions in the Kherson Region. Russian troops fired at least 19 missiles on Mykolaiv July 12 hitting two medical facilities and injuring at least 12 people.

Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv as Russia and Ukraine launch limited attacks and counterattacks on settlements along the line of contact; no significant territory has changed hands in recent days. Russia shelled Kharkiv city July 12; it remains unclear whether there were any casualties. Russian troops previously launched heavy artillery and rocket attacks on Kharkiv city July 11, hitting a shopping center and a residential building and resulting in at least six deaths and 31 injuries.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 17. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 2300-0600 and Zaporizhzhia region 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces' recent capture of the Luhansk Region marks the achievement of a significant objective for the Kremlin. Moscow's attention will now probably turn to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's personnel and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

Ukrainian intelligence released a statement July 1 indicating that, in its estimation, a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine. However, Minsk has falsely accused Kyiv of launching missiles against military facilities within Belarus; Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko alleges that Ukraine is provoking his country and has threatened to "respond instantly" to any attacks.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service