Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 22 /update 168

Event

The Russian offensive against Ukraine continues as of July 22. Conflict incidents remain largely concentrated in the Donbas and southern, Russian-occupied regions of the country. Moscow has begun to slowly increase the tempo and scale of its attacks following the announced end of its operational pause; however, the escalation has not yet resulted in significant territorial gains. The fiercest combat continues to be focused in northern and central areas of the Donetsk Region.

Russia continues to conduct airstrikes and heavy artillery bombardments on Ukrainian positions in settlements between the Russian-held city of Lysychansk and the Ukrainian-held city of Siversk, including Spirne, and Hryhorivka. A Russian ground assault around 10 km (6 miles) east of Siversk was pushed back toward Lysychansk on July 21. Ukrainian forces also repulsed ground assaults on unspecified settlements southeast of the Ukrainian-held city of Bakhmut, while combat also continued in Novoluhanske and near the Vuhlehirsk Thermal Power Plant. Elsewhere in the Donbas, Russian forces in Izyum are attempting to advance on Barvinkove to the south, which would enable them to attack Slovyansk both from the northwest on the Izyum axis and from the west on the Barvinkove axis. Ukrainian forces are continuing to repulse these Russian assaults. Intense combat has been reported in several settlements approximately 10 km (6 miles) east of Siversk as Russian forces in Lysychansk attempt to reach the city. In the Bakhmut sector, Russian forces have reportedly gained a foothold in Pokrovske; additionally, Russian-aligned fighters have claimed to have captured Berestove, though this remained unconfirmed as of July 222. Fighting has also been reported further south as Moscow attempts to capture the Vuhlehirsk Thermal Power Plant.

In the Russian-occupied Kherson region, authorities are repairing the Antonovskiy Bridge after Ukrainian artillery attacks left it closed to freight traffic and heavy military vehicles. The bridge, which spans the Dnieper River, is crucial for the resupplying and transportation of Russian troops in Kherson. Gaining control of crossings over the Dnieper River will likely be a top priority for Ukrainian forces operating in the country’s south.

Skirmishes continue north of Kharkiv, with Russian forces making unsuccessful attempts to advance in the Velyki Prokhody-Pytomnyk direction.

Moscow’s forces continue to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country. Mykolaiv and Kharkhiv, in particular, are subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment although no civilian deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours. Russian forces are also reportedly targeting dry cereal crops in order to ignite fires.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation’s seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine’s nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 24. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. The Ukrainian media company TVAR Media was disrupted by a cyber-attack, July 21. Hackers posted material concerning a sudden illness to hit President Zelensky, via the media company. The fabricated news was allegedly of Russian origin. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Limited grain exports are expected to increase from Ukraine’s southwestern ports on the Danube River, as well as from Russian ports. A declaration was signed July 22 that assures safe passage for merchant ships, following an agreement between the UN, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.

Context

Moscow's attention appears to have turned to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's personnel and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under significant pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider exiting these areas if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby-traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service