Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 28 /update 172

Event

The Russian offensive against Ukraine is continuing as of July 28. Conflict incidents remain largely concentrated in the Donbas and southern Russian-occupied regions of the country. Moscow continues to slowly increase the tempo and scale of its attacks following the announced end of its operational pause; however, the escalation has not yet resulted in significant territorial gains.

The fiercest combat continues to be reported in northern and central areas of the Donetsk Region. Russian forces have recently focused their offensive ground operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Siversk, and Slovyansk. Russian troops advancing toward Bakhmut from the south reportedly recently captured Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirske Power Plant following the retreat of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian defenders continue to repulse Russian advances along other axes. Russian forces continue to bombard Ukrainian settlements in this sector with airstrikes and artillery fire.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south is reportedly gaining momentum. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted three bridges that are crucial for resupplying and transporting Russian forces in Kherson. The main Antonovskiy Bridge is currently closed to traffic and likely unable to support the transport of heavy military equipment following a Ukrainian artillery attack. Kyiv has also been targeting the nearest alternative bridge at Nova Kakhovka and the Daryivskyi Bridge spanning the Inhelets River along that same alternative route. Ukrainian troops have reportedly recaptured several settlements on the frontline west of Kherson in recent weeks. Moscow is reportedly redeploying significant resources to the south of Ukraine to counter this threat. Skirmishes have continued north of Kharkiv in recent days; Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian settlements, including Kharkiv city, with regular artillery and missile bombardment.

Moscow’s forces continue to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country. On July 28, Moscow struck Kropyvnytskyi, Honcharivska in the Chernihiv Region, and the Vyshgorod district of Kyiv in missile attacks; all attacks resulted in injuries while the Kropyvnytskyi attack killed at least five. Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, in particular, are subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation’s seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine’s nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 31. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow is continuing its offensive in the east as it attempts to gain complete control of the Donetsk Region, with the likely immediate goal of capturing Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. However, entrenched Ukrainian defenders and degraded Russian combat capacity have resulted in very limited progress towards these goals since July 16, when Moscow announced an end to the operational pause it ordered following the fall of Lysychansk. Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. Nonetheless, Kyiv's forces continue to come under significant pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian positions.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is forcing Russia to divert resources to southern Ukraine which will likely come at a cost to its already limited offensive capability in the east. Kyiv's repeated targeting of the bridges around Kherson likely indicates that retaking the city is the primary objective of Kyiv's counteroffensive in the south. Damaging the bridges would cut off Russian troops holding the city leaving them vulnerable to a ground offensive. Information regarding Ukrainian advances along the frontline in this region is limited, but reports suggest steady progress in recent weeks. Kyiv could ramp up offensive activity in this sector at short notice, possibly forcing Moscow to switch from an offensive to a defensive footing while this threat persists.

The territorial situation elsewhere has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider exiting these areas if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service