Ukraine: Russian forces continuing efforts to encircle Lysychansk as of July 2 /update 148

Event

Russian forces are continuing offensive military operations in eastern Ukraine as of July 2. Russian efforts to encircle and capture Lysychansk are ongoing following the fall of nearby Severodonetsk. Russian troops are attempting to encircle the Ukrainian defenders outside the city of Lysychansk and block their logistical support; heavy fighting is reported in the area.

Russian elements have also continued to stage attacks on multiple settlements near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302). Russian artillery has targeted Berestove, Yakovlivka, Vidrodzhennia, and Mayorsk. The Kremlin's forces also launched unsuccessful assaults on the Vuhlehirska thermal power plant from both Dolomite and Myronyvka on July 1. Russian forces continue gaining territory on approach to Slovyansk from the northwest. Ukrainian defenders have repelled Russian attacks along the Mazanivka–Dolyna–Bohorodychne line.

Along the southern front, Russian forces continue to maintain largely defensive positions. Missile and artillery strikes and limited ground assaults continue to be reported in numerous locations. In Odesa Region, a missile strike hit a high-rise building in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi District, killing at least 21 people; a similar strike on a residential building in the town of Serhiivka killed at least 19 people and left dozens wounded.

Russian units withdrew from Snake Island in the Black Sea July 1 following intensive Ukrainian missile and artillery strikes. Ukrainian forces have reportedly secured the island as of July 2.

Ukrainian intelligence indicated July 1 that a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least July 3. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine, with the greatest progress coming in Ukraine's Luhansk Region. Russian-backed forces control over 90 percent of the region. Russian forces' primary focus will likely be the encirclement of Ukrainian defenders in the Lysychansk area following Moscow's gains to the south of the city and the capture of Severodonetsk. The fall of Lysychansk would effectively give Russia complete control of Luhansk, which is likely a significant objective for Moscow. Russia will likely reprioritize assaults toward Slovyansk as its next objective; the territorial situation in this area has remained broadly the same for several days as Russia has focused its efforts on operations around Lysychansk. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service