Ukraine: Ukrainian forces withdraw from Lysychansk as of July 3 /update 149

Event

Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the city of Lysychansk as of early July 3, as Russian troops continue their offensive military operations in eastern Ukraine. Russian elements had spent several days attempting to encircle the Ukrainian defenders outside the city block their logistical support, eventually forcing the withdrawal.

Russian elements have also continued to stage attacks on multiple settlements near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302). Russian artillery has targeted Berestove, Yakovlivka, Vidrodzhennia, and Mayorsk. The Kremlin's forces also launched unsuccessful assaults on the Vuhlehirska thermal power plant from both Dolomite and Myronyvka on July 1. Russian forces continue gaining territory on approach to Slovyansk from the northwest. Ukrainian defenders have repelled Russian attacks along the Mazanivka–Dolyna–Bohorodychne line.

Along the southern front, Russian forces continue to maintain largely defensive positions. Missile and artillery strikes and limited ground assaults continue to be reported in numerous locations. In Odesa Region, a July 1 missile strike hit a high-rise building in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi District, killing at least 21 people; a similar strike on a residential building in the town of Serhiivka killed at least 19 people and left dozens wounded on the same day. In apparent retaliation, Ukrainian forces reportedly launched three Tochka-U missiles against the Russian border city of Belgorod on July 3. Although Russian air defense units successfully shot down all three of the missiles, reports out of Moscow claim that falling debris impacted in a residential area damaging homes and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian intelligence released a statement on July 1 indicating that, in its estimation, a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine. However, as of July 3, Minsk has accused Kyiv of launching missiles against military facilities within Belarus; Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko alleges that Ukraine is provoking his country and has threatened to "respond instantly" to any attacks.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least July 10. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine, with the greatest progress coming in Ukraine's Luhansk Region. Russian-backed forces control over 90 percent of the region. The complete fall of Lysychansk would effectively give Russia full control of Luhansk, which is likely a significant objective for Moscow; however, it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces plan to regroup and contest control of the city once more following their July 3 withdrawal. Once Lysychansk is secure, though, Russia will likely reprioritize assaults toward Slovyansk as its next objective; the territorial situation in this area has remained broadly static for several days. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service