11 Aug 2022 | 02:51 PM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least Aug. 14 /update 1
Severe weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least Aug. 14. Flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions possible.
Event
A combination of weather systems is forecast to bring adverse conditions across much of Mexico through at least Aug. 14. The North American Monsoon will continue to bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to northwestern parts of the country. A series of tropical waves are expected to interact with low pressure channels and a low pressure area with the potential for cyclonic development off the southwest coast to bring heavy downpours and thunderstorms to southeastern, southern, central, and western Mexico. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong winds and possible hail storms. The low pressure area is also forecast to generate rough seas and strong winds in some western coastal areas. Low pressure channels and other atmospheric conditions will also combine to bring downpours to parts of northern, northeastern, central, eastern, and southeastern Mexico over the coming days. High temperatures are expected to persist over northern regions.
The heaviest rainfall is expected in western, northwestern, and southern states. Daily rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are possible in parts of Guerro Aug. 11-12, Chiapas Aug. 11, Oaxaca Aug. 12, Jalisco and Nayarit Aug. 13-14, and Sinaloa and Sonora Aug. 13. Daily rainfall totals of 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) are expected across many other parts of western, northwestern, central, southern, and southeastern Mexico over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger rising river levels, flooding, and landslides in affected areas. Winds gusting up to 60 kph (37 mph) and waves of 1-2 meters (3-6.5 feet) are expected in some western coastal areas Aug. 12-14. Temperatures of between 40-45 C (113 F) are expected in parts of northern Mexico Aug. 11-14.
Hazardous Conditions
The active weather systems could produce rounds of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of Mexico in the coming days. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash and areal flooding in some areas. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
In areas where there is an extended period of oppressive heat, dry conditions may produce ideal circumstances for wildfire growth. Heatwaves also pose a threat to vulnerable groups - such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with respiratory illnesses - due to the increased possibility of heat stroke or heat exhaustion during prolonged exposure to high temperatures. These health risks could also extend to relatively healthy individuals during significant heatwave events. In addition to significantly impacting athletes and those who work outdoors, high temperatures can cause problems for people using mass transit. The lack of air conditioning and cramped vehicles during rush hour may lead to some passengers being hospitalized for dehydration.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected regions.
Very high temperatures may warp rail tracks and force passenger and freight trains to operate at reduced speeds. Road surface damage is also possible, and overheated vehicles may worsen traffic problems in urban areas where congestion is already a problem. High temperatures could lead to an increased demand for electricity, which might trigger localized brownouts or blackouts, exacerbating hazardous conditions when air conditioning is no longer possible.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
During heatwaves, remain indoors in air conditioning when possible. If outdoor activities are necessary, frequently rest in shaded areas; avoid activity during the hottest times of the day. Stay well-hydrated by drinking plenty of fluids. Avoid alcoholic beverages, which are dehydrating; drink water that is bottled or has been boiled. Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing. Cotton fabrics are more cooling than synthetics. Promptly seek medical attention if signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke develop.
