Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of Aug. 19 /update 174

Event

Moscow is continuing its offensive in Ukraine as of Aug. 19. Russian troops have gained territory in the vicinity of Bakhmut and are currently engaging Ukrainian defenders in the Soledar-Bakhmutske area located 10 km (6 miles) northeast of Bakhmut. Additionally, Russian soldiers are heavily shelling the city of Bakhmut as well as other Ukrainian-held settlements throughout this area.

Russian offensive operations continue to focus on other areas of the Donetsk Region as well. The Kremlin's forces continue to launch limited ground attacks against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, most of which are repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. There are also reports of fighting east of Donetsk city, where the Russians are advancing in several directions.

Moscow’s forces continue to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country. At least 17 people were killed and 40 others injured in Russian strikes on Kharkiv early Aug. 18; central districts in Kharkiv city are subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment. Additionally, two other people were killed in Krasnohrad, located 100 km (60 miles) south of Kharkiv. Russia has also continued to target Mykolaiv, resulting in the killing of one person and the injury of two others during a bombardment Aug. 18.

Multiple explosions occurred at an ammunition depot in Maiske and at an airfield in Gvardeyskoe in occupied Crimea Aug. 16 following prior explosions at Russia's Saky Airbase, also located in Crimea. Ukrainian officials have not explicitly claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, but senior figures have indicated that the activity is part of a ramping up of the counteroffensive in the south of the country. Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian strongholds and ammunition warehouses in northwestern and northern Kherson as of Aug. 19. Previously, Ukrainian troops targeted several bridges that are crucial for resupplying and transporting Russian forces in Kherson. The main Antonovskiy Bridge was closed for several days as a result of Ukrainian shelling. The counteroffensive in Kherson still has not developed into significant ground attacks, which has given Moscow time to reinforce the region with troops from the Donetsk area.

Disruptions and Shortages
As part of the Black Sea Initiative, Ukrainian ports have continued to export grain. On Aug. 17, a further five ships started their transit of the Black Sea corridor, in what is the largest convoy so far. A total of 21 vessels have now left Ukraine under this accord, with no reported security incidents. Russian forces targeted Odesa with missile strikes Aug. 17 without disrupting port operations. Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine’s nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow is continuing its offensive in the east as it attempts to gain complete control of the Donetsk Region, with the likely immediate goal of capturing Bakhmut. However, entrenched Ukrainian defenders and degraded Russian combat capacity have resulted in very limited progress toward these goals since July 16, when Moscow announced an end to the operational pause it ordered following the fall of Lysychansk. Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. Nonetheless, Kyiv's forces continue to come under significant pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian positions.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is forcing Russia to divert resources to southern Ukraine which will likely come at a cost to its already limited offensive capability in the east. Kyiv's repeated targeting of the bridges around Kherson likely indicates that retaking the city is the primary objective of Kyiv's counteroffensive in the south. Damaging the bridges would cut off Russian troops holding the city, leaving them vulnerable to a ground offensive. Information regarding Ukrainian advances along the front line in this region is tightly controlled, but reports suggest that Kyiv's forces have made limited progress in recent weeks. Kyiv could ramp up offensive activity in this sector at short notice, possibly forcing Moscow to switch from an offensive to a defensive footing while this threat persists.

The territorial situation elsewhere has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid traveling to active conflict zones in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service