Ethiopia: The security situation is likely to remain volatile across northern regions through late September /update 5

Event

Insecurity will almost certainly persist in northern Ethiopia through at least late September following renewed fighting in Tigray and Amhara regions, Aug. 24-Sept. 13. Ethiopian Defence Forces (EDF) reportedly launched an air strike in the Tigray's region capital of Mekele, Sept. 13. At least one person was wounded. The attack comes a day after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) announced its readiness for an African Union-led peace process and a ceasefire.

Recent incidents follow a resumption of fighting in northern Ethiopia, including, government airstrikes in the city of Mekele, Tigray Region, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) control of the town of Kobo, Amhara Region. Fighting has also been reported in Yalo, Zobel, Weldiya, and Muja in Amahara Region as rebels reportedly advance southward into Amahara Region. TPLF spokespersons have stated the TPLF will continue to advance into Amhara and Afar regions.

Curfews
In response to the TPLF advance and renewed fighting, authorities in Amhara have reportedly enacted curfew measures in select areas.

• Weldiya: A nightly 19:00-06:00 curfew is in place until further notice for local residents, and vehicles, from 18:00.

• Dessie: Movement of people and services in restaurants, nightclubs, bars, and grocery shops are prohibited after 19:00.

• Debre Birhan: Displaced persons are restricted from entering or leaving their shelters after 18:00, vehicle movements are prohibited, and bars and restaurants should close from 20:00.

• Kombolcha: People movement, taxi services, restaurants, bars, groceries, and cafes are authorized until 23:00. Hoteliers, bed and breakfast facilities, and residential and apartment rentals are required to provide copies of ID cards of their tenants to security forces. Gatherings in entertainment facilities are also prohibited. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited.

• Sekota: Pedestrian movement is restricted 19:00-06:00 and from 18:00 for vehicles. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited. Displaced persons are not allowed to move outside the shelter camps.

• Lalibela: Entering or leaving the city is prohibited from 19:00-06:00. No vehicle is allowed to move during that time. Moving around the city with unauthorized weapons is prohibited.

Armed conflict will likely intensify between federal forces and the TPLF in the coming weeks if a ceasefire is not called, with fighting likely in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions. A heightened military presence is likely in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions, along with enhanced security measures in cities and towns in the regions, including curfews, roadblocks, movement restrictions, and telecommunications disruptions. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Context

The EDF, along with Eritrean forces, launched an offensive in the Adyabo area of northwestern Tigray Sept. 1. Heavy artillery shelling was also reported around the town of Sheraro near the Eritrean border. On Aug. 31, the federal government announced that fighting had extended to Wag, Welkait, and border areas with Sudan, in Amhara Region.

The resumption of fighting comes after federal forces, and the TPLF agreed to a cessation of hostilities in late March. The federal government and TPLF rebels blame each other for the resumption of conflict. Peace efforts have been delayed due to disagreements over the agenda of talks, mediators, and TPLF's request to restore basic services, such as electricity, banking, telephone, air, and land transport in the Tigray Region, before the beginning of negotiations.

Eritrea effectively joining the conflict would signal an escalation, as is the potential indirect implication of neighboring Sudan, potentially serving as a rear base for the TPLF in the future. Ethiopia's air force announced it shot down a plane Aug. 24 ferrying weapons from neighboring Sudan, amid tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hydropower dam. Controlling towns at the border with Sudan would allow the TPLF to gain access to supply corridors and potentially launch an offensive on Eritrea.

Should fighting escalate further, officials outside the conflict zone, including in Addis Ababa, will likely enhance security. Patrols, checkpoints, and search operations will likely increase and could result in short-term detentions. Officials may implement or amend restrictions on movement, including curfews. Authorities could also curtail the use of telecommunications due to security concerns.

Rallies in response to the renewed conflict are likely, particularly in Addis Ababa's Meskel Square. Anti-government demonstrations may also occur in federal government-controlled areas. There is a heightened threat of violence at these events. All gatherings will likely result in localized ground travel disruptions.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted in attacks, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions should liaise with trusted contacts.

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with diplomatic missions.