North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Earl tracking north-northeastwards as of early Sept. 9 /update 5

Event

Hurricane Earl is tracking north-northeastwards in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 9. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 230 km (140 miles) east-northeast of Bermuda. The system passed its closest point to Bermuda as a Category 2 Hurricane early Sept. 9 and is now moving away from the islands.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally northeastward Sept. 9 away from the east coast of the US. The system is expected to weaken slightly and transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone Sept. 10-11 as it continues to track northeastward into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The storm is expected to weaken further as it turns to track eastward and then east-northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland, Canada, Sept. 11-13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 8, authorities have issued a tropical storm warning for Bermuda. The Bermuda Weather Service has warned that tropical storm force winds, heavy rainfall, and rough seas will linger in the islands on the morning of Sept. 9, before conditions begin to improve from the afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected in Bermuda through Sept. 9. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions of the East coast of the US as of early Sept. 9 and are expected to reach parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada Sept. 9-10. Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning for Avalon Peninsula Southeast and a special weather statement for Avalon Peninsula Southeast and St. John's and vicinity regarding the storm system as of early Sept. 9. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The Bermuda Electric Light Company (BELCO) reported that over 1,000 customers across Bermuda experienced power outages during the passing of the storm late Sept. 8; however, they have been able to restore supply to many of these homes and around 350 remain without power as of early Sept. 9.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Bermuda Weather Service
Environment Canada