North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Earl tracking northeastwards as of early Sept. 10 /update 6

Event

Hurricane Earl is tracking northeastwards in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 10. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 610 km (380 miles) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken and transition into an extratropical storm as it tracks generally northeastward Sept. 10-11. The system is expected to weaken further as it turns to track eastward and then east-northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland, Canada, Sept. 11-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 10, there are no coastal watches or warnings by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in effect for the storm. Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland Sept. 10-11 and swells generated by Earl are expected to affect Bermuda. portions of the east coast of the US, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada through at least Sept. 12.

Environment Canada has issued a tropical cyclone information statement warning of wind gusts of up to 110 kph (68 mph) for the southern Avalon Peninsula and St. John's and vicinity Sept. 10-11, as well as rainfall amounts of 4-8 cm (1.5-3 inches). Heavy swells are expected to reach the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland from early Sept. 10 and persist through late Sept. 11, with waves of 5-7 meters (16-23 feet) possible off the eastern coast of the Avalon Peninsula. Strong wind warnings have been issued for St. John's and vicinity, Avalon Peninsula Southeast, and Avalon Peninsula Southwest. Heavy rainfall warnings have also been issued for St. John's and vicinity. The US National Weather Service has issued a number of coastal flooding, small craft, rip current, beach hazard, and high surf warnings, advisories, and statements across parts of the central and northern east coast. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane Earl passed around 161 km (100 miles) to the southeast of Bermuda late Sept. 8-early Sept. 9, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall across the islands. Authorities have reported that the storm passed without major incident; however, the Bermuda Electric Light Company (BELCO) has reported over 100 customers across Bermuda remain without power as of late Sept. 9, down from a peak of around 1,500 late Sept. 8.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Bermuda Weather Service
Environment Canada
US National Weather Service