07 Sep 2022 | 10:52 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Earl tracking northwards in the Sargasso Sea as of early Sept. 7 /update 3
Hurricane Earl tracking northwards in the North Atlantic Ocean as of early Sept. 7. Close approach to Bermuda forecast late Sept. 8.
Event
Hurricane Earl is tracking northwards in the Sargasso Sea region of the North Atlantic Ocean as of early Sept. 7. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 785 km (490 miles) south of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Category 2 Hurricane as it tracks north-northwestward in the Sargasso Sea Sept. 7-8. Earl is expected to strengthen further into a Category 3 Hurricane as it tracks generally northeastward Sept. 8-9, making a close approach to the east of Bermuda late Sept. 8-early Sept. 9. Despite passing well offshore, due to the strengthening of the storm in the intervening days, some impacts are likely to be felt in Bermuda during the passage of the system, including rough seas and strong winds. After passing Bermuda, Earl is expected to maintain Category 3 Hurricane strength as it continues to track northeastward away from the east coast of the US and southeastern Canada into the northern North Atlantic Ocean Sept. 9-10, before weakening Sept. 10-12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 05:00 AST Sept. 7, authorities have issued a tropical storm warning for Bermuda. The Bermuda Weather Service has warned of a rapid deterioration in weather conditions from Sept. 8. As well as tropical storm force winds, rainfall amounts of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) are expected through Sept. 9, and heavy swells are expected to generate life-threatening rip currents. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
