North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Fiona tracking north-northeastward as of early Sept. 23 /update 11

Event

Hurricane Fiona is tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 23 and is passing to the northwest of Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 250 km (155 miles) northwest of Bermuda

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain Category 3 hurricane strength as it tracks northeastward and then north-northeastward away from Bermuda Sept. 23. The system is expected to weaken and transition into a post-tropical cyclone whilst maintaining hurricane strength before making landfall over eastern Nova Scotia on the morning of Sept. 24. The storm will continue to weaken as it tracks across the Gulf of St Lawrence Sept. 24, before making a further landfall over southeastern Quebec early Sept. 25. Further weakening is expected as the post-tropical system tracks north-northeastward and then northward across far eastern Quebec and central Labrador Sept. 25 before exiting into the Labrador Sea late Sept. 25. The system is expected to weaken further and become a remnant low as it tracks north-northeastward and then northward between far eastern Canada and southwestern Greenland Sept. 26-27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast. Significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 23, officials have issued the following hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Bermuda
• Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
• Prince Edward Island
• Isle-de-la-Madeleine
• Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

Tropical Storm Warning

• St. Andrews, New Brunswick, to west of Hubbards, Nova Scotia
• West of Brule, Nova Scotia, to Cap Madeleine, Quebec
• Anticosti Island
• Sheldrake, Quebec, to north of Parson's Pond, Newfoundland
• Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland
• Francois to St Lawrence, Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Watch

• North of Boat Harbor, Newfoundland, to West Bay, Labrador

Environment Canada has also issued heavy rainfall, storm surge, and strong wind warnings and watches across parts of central and eastern New Brunswick, southeastern Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and southeastern Quebec.

Officials could issue new warnings or update, extend, or rescind existing warnings in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) across Bermuda. Storm surge is forecast along the coast. Rainfall accumulations of 7.5 cm-15 cm (3-6 inches), with localized maximums of up to 25 cm (10 inches), are forecast over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland. Accumulations of approximately 5-12 cm (2-5 inches) are expected in Newfoundland and eastern Quebec, as well as 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) in eastern New Brunswick. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

Storm surge is expected to cause elevated water levels in coastal areas of Bermuda from Sept. 23 and could produce coastal flooding in areas of Atlantic Canada within the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in the coming days. Swells generated by Fiona are currently affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern US coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada Sept. 23. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Bermuda closed all schools and government offices Sept. 23. Bus services ceased 22:00 Sept. 22 and return following the passing of the storm. Butterfield Bank branches closed 12:00 Sept. 22 and reopen Sept. 26. Ferry services are suspended from the afternoon of Sept. 22. Airports remain open, although some flights have had their schedules changed to account for the storm. As of early Sept. 23, the Bermuda Electric Light Company (BELCO) has reported that more than 23,500 customers are without power due to the passing of the storm.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Bermuda Weather Service
Meteorological Service of Canada