North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Fiona tracking north-northwestward as of early Sept. 19 /update 8

Event

Hurricane Fiona is tracking north-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 20 and is currently passing close to the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 3 hurricane. As of 05:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 30 km (20 miles) southeast of Grand Turk Island, Turks and Caicos Islands.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane as it continues to track north-northwestward past the Turks and Caicos Islands Sept. 20. The storm is then expected to strengthen further as it turns northward and then northeastward through early Sept. 22, before making a close approach to Bermuda Sept. 22-23. After passing Bermuda, the system is then forecast to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward Sept. 23-24, before making a turn to the north and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it passes approaches southeastern Canada Sept. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast. Significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 20, authorities had issued hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches for the following locations:

Hurricane Warning

• Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Warning

• Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations over the next 24 hours of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across the British and US Virgin Islands and northern Puerto Rico; 2.5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across southern Puerto Rico; 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) across the Dominican Republic, with localized maximums of 15 cm (6 inches); 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across the Turks and Caicos Islands; and 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) across the southeastern Bahamas. The heavy rainfall could produce considerable flood impacts in the affected areas, especially across southern Puerto Rico, parts of the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, including flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides over higher terrain. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) above tide levels in coastal areas of the Turks and Caicos Islands Sept. 20. Localized coastal flooding is also possible over parts of the southeastern Bahamas.

Authorities declared a state of emergency Sept. 18 for Puerto Rico, where the storm left the entire island without power and at least two people dead; as of early Sept. 20, more than 1.25 million customers across Puerto Rico remained without power. Authorities have asserted that it will take days to restore power to the entire island. Significant flight and port disruptions have been reported in Puerto Rico in connection with the storm, and lingering disruptions will likely continue over the coming days.

Officials in the Dominican Republic evacuated some 800 residents from high-risk areas in the east of the country. The storm has reportedly downed power lines, trees, and billboards in Punta Cana, La Romana, and El Seibo in the country's east. Several communities have reportedly been cut off by flooding and thousands have been left without power. Officials have not immediately reported any casualties in the Dominican Republic in connection with the storm.

Officials in the Turks and Caicos Islands advised all businesses to close and residents to stay off the roads and shelter at home from late Sept. 19 until the National Emergency Operations Center gives the all-clear that the threat from the storm has passed. Those living in flood-prone areas have been urged to evacuate and shelters have been established across the islands to provide a secure location for displaced residents.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center