21 Sep 2022 | 11:46 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Fiona tracking northward as of early Sept. 21 /update 9
Hurricane Fiona tracking northward in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 21; close approach to Bermuda forecast early Sept. 23.
Event
Hurricane Fiona has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and is tracking northward in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 21. As of 05:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,160 km (720 miles) southwest of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain Category 4 hurricane strength as it tracks north-northeastward and then northeastward Sept. 21-23, passing close to Bermuda early Sept. 23. After passing Bermuda, the system is then forecast to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward Sept. 23-24 and may transition to a post-tropical cyclone before making landfall over eastern Nova Scotia Sept. 24. The post-tropical storm is expected to continue to weaken as it tracks north-northeastward over the Gulf of St Lawrence before making a further landfall over southeastern Quebec early Sept. 25. The system will weaken further as it tracks north-northeastward over central Newfoundland and Labrador Sept. 25, before exiting into the Labrador Sea early Sept. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast. Significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of early Sept. 21, officials have issued a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.
Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across parts of the Dominican Republic and 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) across the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as rainfall totals of 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) across the southeastern Bahamas and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across Bermuda. The heavy rainfall could produce considerable flood impacts in the affected areas, especially in the Turks and Caicos Islands, including flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides over higher terrain. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast of Hispanola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. The swells are expected to spread to the northwestern Bahamas and parts of the east coast of the US Sept. 21-22 and will reach Bermuda by early Sept. 22. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach Bermuda late Sept. 22 or early Sept. 23.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
