North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Fiona tracking northward as of early Sept. 22 /update 10

Event

Hurricane Fiona, a Category 4 hurricane, is tracking northward in the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 22. As of 05:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 790 km (491 miles) southwest of Bermuda.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain Category 4 hurricane strength as it tracks northeastward before weakening to a Category 3 hurricane on approach west of Bermuda early Sept. 23. After passing Bermuda, the system will track northwards weakening to a Category 2 hurricane on approach to eastern Canada. Landfall is forecast along the Nova Scotia coastline around Sept. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast. Significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 22, officials have issued a hurricane warning for Bermuda. Authorities have also closed all schools Sept. 23. Bus services will cease at 22:00 Sept. 22 and return following the passing of the storm. Butterfield Bank branches will close at 12:00 Sept. 22 and reopen Sept. 26. Ferry services will be suspended from the afternoon of Sept. 22. Officials could issue new warnings and operational updates in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across Bermuda. Storm surge is forecast along the coast. Rainfall accumulations of 7.6 cm-15.2 cm (3-6 inches) are forecast over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland, and approximately 5-12 cm (2-5 inches) in eastern Quebec and 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) in eastern New Brunswick. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Bermuda Weather Service
Meteorological Service of Canada