North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Fiona tracking northwestward as of late Sept. 19 /update 7

Event

Hurricane Fiona is tracking northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Sept. 19 after moving across the Dominican Republic. As of 17:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 205 km (130 miles) southeast of Grand Turk Island, Turks and Caicos Islands.

Forecast models indicate that the system, now a Category 2 hurricane, will continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward, making a close approach to the Turks and Caicos Islands early Sept. 20. The storm will then likely strengthen further as it turns northward and then northeastward through early Sept. 22, intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane and briefly into a Category 4 hurricane. Fiona is subsequently forecast to slightly weaken back into a Category 3 hurricane as it continues to turn northeastward and make a close approach to Bermuda Sept. 22-23. After passing Bermuda, the system is then forecast to turn north-northeastward and weaken before making a close approach to Nova Scotia and landfall on Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane Sept. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 19, authorities had issued hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches for the following locations:

Hurricane Warning

• Turks and Caicos Islands

Hurricane Watch

• Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

Tropical Storm Warning

• North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata

• Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across the British and US Virgin Islands; 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across southern Puerto Rico, with additional local maximums of 38 cm (15 inches); 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) across northern Puerto Rico, with additional local maximums of 15 cm (6 inches); 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across northern and eastern Dominican Republic, with additional local maximums of 25 cm (10 inches); 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) across the rest of the Dominican Republic and eastern Haiti; 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across the Turks and Caicos Islands; and 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) across the southeastern Bahamas. The heavy rainfall could produce considerable flood impacts in the affected areas, especially across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, including flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides over higher terrain. Storm surge and consequent localized coastal flooding are possible along the coasts of the Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, and the southeastern Bahamas over the coming days.

Authorities declared a state of emergency Sept. 18 for Puerto Rico, where the storm left the entire island without power and at least one person dead; as of Sept. 19, nearly 90 percent of Puerto Rico remained without power. Authorities have asserted that it will take days to restore power to the entire island. Significant flight and port disruptions have been reported in Puerto Rico in connection with the storm, and lingering disruptions will likely continue over the coming days.

Officials in the Dominican Republic have evacuated some 800 residents from high-risk areas in the east of the country. The storm has reportedly downed power lines, trees, and billboards in Punta Cana, La Romana, and El Seibo in the country's east. Officials have not immediately reported any casualties in the Dominican Republic in connection with the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center