Ukraine: Rainfall forecast across most of the country through at least Sept. 22

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Moderate levels of rainfall are forecast across many parts of Ukraine through at least Sept. 22. As of Sept. 15, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has forecast rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are likely across much of the country Sept. 15-18, with the far southern regions likely to be the least impacted. Conditions are expected to generally improve temporarily Sept. 19, before another large band of adverse weather approaches the country from the southwest Sept. 20 and passes over central Ukraine through Sept. 22. Authorities have not yet issued any meteorological or hydrological watches or warnings but may issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Five-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-19. Maximum daytime temperatures 18-24 C (57-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F).

• Luhansk: Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-18. Largely dry Sept. 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 17-27 C (63-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F).

• Donetsk: Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-18. Largely dry Sept. 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 18-27 C (64-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F).

• Mariupol: Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-18. Largely dry Sept. 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 18-27 C (64-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F).

• Kherson: Light rainfall is forecast Sept. 15 and largely dry Sept. 16. Light-to-moderate rainfall Sept. 17-early Sept. 19 before conditions improve. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-29 C (66-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Light rainfall is forecast Sept. 15 and largely dry Sept. 16. Light-to-moderate rainfall Sept. 17-early Sept. 19 before conditions improve. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-27 C (66-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-17 C (55-63 F).

• Belgorod: Light rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-16. Drier Sept. 17 before moderate rainfall Sept. 18-19. Little precipitation Sept. 20-21. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-21 C (57-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-13 C (46-55 F).

• Valuyki: Light rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-16. Drier Sept. 17 before further light rainfall Sept. 18-19. Little precipitation Sept. 20-21. Maximum daytime temperatures 15-24 C (59-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-13 C (46-55 F).

• Rostov: Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast Sept. 15-17. Warm and dry Sept. 18. Little precipitation Sept. 19-20. Moderate rainfall Sept. 21. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-33 C (72-91 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-17 C (52-63 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Sept. 15, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow strong wind warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Rostov, Krasnodar Krai, and across Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh regions.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at airports across the country. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather has occurred. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring