Ukraine: Ukrainian forces make additional territorial gains in ongoing counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region as of Sept. 12 /update 179

Event

As of Sept. 12, Ukrainian forces have made additional territorial gains in Kharkiv Region in an ongoing counteroffensive that began Sept. 6. Ukrainian forces have reportedly recaptured most of the Kharkiv region, retaking numerous settlements and reaching the border with Russia in the area. With these gains, the battle for the Kharkiv region seems to be over, and Ukrainian forces will likely focus on consolidating their gains and building up their defensive posture. Russian troops have conducted intense bombardments of civilian infrastructure throughout the Kharkiv region allegedly as retaliation following the collapse of their forces in the region.

Following severe Russian aerial attacks on the evening of Sept. 11, the city of Kharkiv has suffered electricity and water shortages. As of 06.00 on Sept. 12, the city's emergency services had restored most electrical and water distribution. The second wave of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure on the afternoon of Sept. 12 has caused further disruptions in the electrical and water distribution services. The mayor of Kharkiv informs that repair works are underway; however, as of late Sept. 12, most electricity and water distribution remain out of service. The city's metro service is also suspended due to the lack of electricity.

In Kherson Region, Ukrainian forces are continuing their counteroffensive, launched Sept. 12, and have reportedly made gains on the western bank of the Dnipro River, liberating Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhyi Stavok, and Myroliubivka. In Mykolaiv Region, Russian strikes continue in and around Mykolaiv city.

In the east of Ukraine, Russian forces continue limited ground assaults and artillery bombardment of Ukrainian positions and settlements in the Donetsk Regions. However, the average number of shellings has reduced recently after reaching a peak in mid-August. In Donetsk Region, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a focus of international attention following an inspection by IAEA officials. Ukrainian authorities shut down the final active reactor Sept. 11 after restoring the connection to the power grid. Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for continued shelling in the vicinity; the plant had previously lost its primary connection to the power grid and relied on a reserve connection.

Moscow's forces also continue to conduct missile attacks and airstrikes across other parts of the country.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 10, at least 87 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over two million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 19:00-07:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

The Ukrainian advances of the last few days have introduced momentum and risk into the conflict after months of near stalemate along the frontlines. The overall risk posture will depend on whether Ukrainian forces continue their offensive or pause to consolidate their territorial gains. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to regroup to mount a counteroffensive but may establish an effective new defensive posture. There is likely to be a period of re-appraisal of operational objectives on both sides. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their war aims before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka direction in the short and medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will likely remain a key objective for Kremlin.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is continuing, though progress has been limited. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as HIMARs to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the Dnieper River, intending to cause significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a considerable effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses there. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service