Ukraine: Ukrainian forces make territorial gains in ongoing counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region as of Sept. 10 /update 178

Event

As of Sept. 10, Ukrainian forces have made rapid territorial gains in Kharkiv Region in an ongoing counteroffensive that began Sept. 6. Ukrainian forces have reportedly advanced approximately 50 km into territory previously held by Russian forces and have retaken approximately 30 settlements including the city of Balakliia, as well as Verbivka, Yakovenkove, Volokhiv Yar, Bairak, and Nova Husarivka. Reports Sept. 10 also indicate that Ukrainian forces have recaptured the city of Kupyansk, a key Russian logistical node, and are either moving towards or have surrounded Izyum. For their part, although Russian forces have lost territory, they have continued to shell Dmytrivka, Prudianka, Zolochiv, Sosnivka, Duvanka, Udy, Lyptsi, Peremoha, Momotove, and Borshchova in Kharkiv Region.

In Kherson Region, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive Aug. 29, confirmed in recent days they have recaptured Vysokopillya and Olhyne, and are attacking Russian positions in the areas of Kostromka and Bezimenne. In Mykolaiv Region, Russian strikes continue in and around Mykolaiv city.

In the east of Ukraine, Russian forces continue limited ground assaults and artillery bombardment of Ukrainian positions and settlements in Donetsk Regions, although the average number of shellings has reduced recently after reaching a peak in mid-August. In Donetsk Region, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled attacks in Zaitseve, Vesela Dolna, Soledar, Bakhmut and Pervomaiske.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a focus of international attention with an ongoing inspection by IAEA officials. Both Russia and Ukraine blame each other for continued shelling in the vicinity; the plant has lost its main connection to the power grid and is relying on a reserve connection. The IAEA aims to issue a report on the state and operation of the plant in the week commencing Sept. 12.

Moscow's forces also continue to conduct missile attacks and airstrikes across other parts of the country. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning Ukrainian forces in the region.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 10, at least 87 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over two million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the “Black Sea Initiative.” No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord. No further damage to ships has been reported since Aug. 5, and there have been no reports of sea mines since Aug. 11.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 19:00-07:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Kyiv’s rapid progress in Kharkiv Region in recent days is a significant development, and the capture of Kupyansk would mark a major battlefield defeat for Russia. The city is an important road and rail hub through which supplies heading south from the Russian border go into eastern Ukraine. Nonetheless, the speed of the Kurainian territorial gains could overstretch its supply lines, rendering them unable to keep up with the advance. In addition, the recent gains have reportedly come at a significant cost to personnel and equipment.

Despite Kyiv’s advances, Moscow is maintaining offensive pressure in the east as it attempts to gain complete control of Donetsk Region, with the likely goal of capturing Bakhmut. This pressure may be eased somewhat as troops and equipment are refocused towards halting Kyiv’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region. Irrespective of this, the tempo of operations in Donetsk Region has reduced in recent weeks, as measured in shelling density, ground force manoeuvers, and in territorial gains. Russian forces have not captured a significant settlement since the fall of Lysychansk July 3, and some more capable Russian forces have been redeployed to Kherson Region to defend against Ukrainian offensive operations there. This, in turn, has enabled Kyiv to launch surprise counterattacks against Russian positions, as evidenced by the recent counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is continuing, though progress has been limited there. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as HIMARs to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the Dnieper River, with the aim of causing significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a significant effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses there. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

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