US: Hurricane Ian tracking northward and approaching South Carolina Sept. 30 /update 11

Event

Hurricane Ian is tracking northward in the far western North Atlantic Ocean Sept. 30. As of 11:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (65 miles) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane in the coming hours. Ian is likely to weaken rapidly and transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks north-northwestward over eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through early Oct. 1, before turning to track northward and dissipating over north-central Virginia late Oct. 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Sept. 30, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Savannah River to Cape Fear.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Altamaha Sound to Savannah River; Cape Fear to Duck; Pamlico Sound

• Storm Surge Warning: Savannah River to Cape Fear; Neuse River; St. Johns River.

• Hurricane Watch: East of Cape Fear to Surf City

• Storm Surge Watch: North of Cape Fear to Duck; Pamlico River; Cape Fear River.

The US National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has warned of a "Moderate Risk" (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) of excessive rainfall for portions of central and eastern South Carolina, central North Carolina, and south-central Virginia Sept. 30-Oct. 1, with a Slight and Marginal risk for surrounding areas. Slight and Marginal risks of excessive rainfall persist over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast and the Appalachian mountains through early Oct. 3. Authorities have issued emergency declarations for Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia as of late Sept. 29. President Biden has declared a major disaster for Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties in Florida, Sept. 29. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict storm total rainfall accumulations of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over northeast South Carolina, with localized maximums of 30 cm (12 inches), and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) in central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia, with localized maximums of 20 cm (8 inches) across northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida through at least Oct. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina Sept. 30. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia Sept. 30-Oct. 1. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic Oct. 1-2. Tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern North Carolina Sept. 30 and southeast Virginia late Sept. 30 through early Oct. 1.

Storm surge could raise water levels above normal tide levels along the coasts of the Carolinas through Sept. 30. Swells generated by the storm system are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the northwestern Bahamas and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Widespread disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Florida Peninsula after Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Fort Myers the afternoon Sept. 28 and tracked across the center of the Peninsula Sept. 28-29 before exiting into the North Atlantic Ocean. As of Sept. 30, authorities have reported one fatality associated with the passing of the storm in Deltona, Volusia County, two other fatalities and 12 injured on Sanibel Island, 10 deaths in Charlotte County, and one in Polk County. Initial reports also indicate at least five other deaths in Lee County and eight in Collier County. The death toll is likely to rise over the coming days as search and rescue operations progress.

Severe flooding and wind damage have been reported in Fort Myers, Naples, Venice, and other towns and cities close to where the storm came ashore, and flooding is also ongoing across many other inland parts of the state due to the heavy rainfall brought by the passing of Ian. Sanibel Island in Lee County has been cut off after the storm caused the Sanibel Causeway to collapse late Sept. 28. Reports indicate around 2 million customers across Florida are without power as of early Sept. 30. Boil water notices are in place in Lee and Pasco counties due to possibly contaminated water supplies amid the ongoing flooding. A tornado touched down in Kings Point, Florida, west of Delray Beach late Sept. 27, injuring at least two people. Several cars and structures were damaged. Another tornado has damaged several aircraft and hangars at North Perry Airport (HWO). Damage assessments are ongoing across many parts of Florida as of Sept. 30 and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is confirmed.

Many airports, ports, and other services across Florida are beginning to resume operations Sept. 30 following closures during the passing of the storm. Evacuation orders and curfews are also being lifted in many areas. However, disruptions are likely to be ongoing in areas heavily impacted by the storm in the medium term and many services may be unable to resume full operations due to damages, flooding, power outages, and other storm-related issues.

Charleston International Airport (CHS) in South Carolina has closed ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Ian and does not plan to resume operations until 06:00 Oct. 1. Hundreds of flights have been canceled at Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR) in South Carolina and Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) in North Carolina and in total more than 1,600 flights have been canceled across the US early Sept. 30. Authorities in South Carolina have not ordered any evacuations in coastal areas as of Sept. 30 but have urged residents to take necessary precautions and shelter in a safe location until the storm has passed.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
US National Weather Service