North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Oscar forms and tracks westward toward Turks and Caicos Islands as of Oct. 19

Hurricane Oscar has formed in the North Atlantic Ocean and is tracking westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Oct. 19. As of around 14:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 260 km (165 miles) east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Forecast models indicate that the system will slightly intensify as it makes a close approach to the Turks and Caicos Islands late Oct. 19. Oscar is then forecast to make landfall on the Bahamas' Great Inagua Island overnight Oct. 19-20 and subsequently continue to track westward and make another landfall over Cuba's Holguin Province early Oct. 21. The system is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward Oct. 21 before making another close approach to the Bahamas as a tropical storm Oct. 22. The system will likely dissipate east of the Bahamas on Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of 14:00, officials had issued the following warnings and watches in connection with Hurricane Oscar:

• Hurricane Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands; southeastern Bahamas

• Hurricane Watch: Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

• Tropical Storm Warning: Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

• Tropical Storm Watch: Cuban province of Camaguey

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Officials have cautioned that tropical storm and hurricane conditions will likely reach coastal areas within the hurricane warning area by the afternoon and evening hours of Oct. 19, respectively. Oscar is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), as well as localized higher rainfall amounts of 15 cm (6 inches), to the Turks and Caicos Islands, southeastern Bahamas, and southeastern Cuba through Oct. 22. The system will also likely bring a dangerous storm surge that will probably produce major coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.