Bay of Campeche: Tropical Storm Karl forms off eastern coast of Mexico Oct. 11; landfall forecast in Veracruz State early Oct. 14

Event

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is tracking northwestward Oct. 11. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 195 km (120 miles) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will slightly intensify as it continues to track northwestward over the Bay of Campeche through midday Oct. 12. The storm is then forecast to track west-northwestward later Oct. 12 before turning to track southwestward toward Mexico's Veracruz State Oct. 13. Karl will likely weaken slightly before making landfall as a tropical storm in Veracruz State early Oct. 14. The system will then weaken further as it continues to track southwestward over the state and will probably dissipate by the early afternoon of Oct. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Oct. 11, authorities had issued a tropical storm watch for coastal areas between Cabo Rojo and Puerto Veracruz in Veracruz State. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will produce rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with localized maximum rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) in the region. Additionally, 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, with localized maximum totals of up to 15 cm (6 inches), are forecast for the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas. Flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain, are possible. Tropical storm-strength winds may affect areas along Mexico's coast within the tropical storm watch area beginning Oct. 13. Furthermore, swells are likely to affect portions of the Mexican coast over the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.