Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Lisa tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea as of late Oct. 31 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Lisa is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea late Oct. 31. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 470 km (290 miles) south-southeast of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it continues generally tracking westward, passing south of the Cayman Islands early Nov. 1 before making a close approach to Honduras late Nov. 1-2, passing north of the country. Lisa is likely to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane and make landfall over Belize late Nov. 2 before weakening rapidly as it tracks west across Belize, northern Guatemala, then Chiapas State in Mexico through late Nov. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 31, authorities have issued the following tropical storm warnings and watches:

Hurricane Watch

• Bay Islands

• Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

Tropical Storm Warning

• Bay Islands

• Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla

Tropical Storm Watch

• Entire north coast of Honduras

• Guatemala from the border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios

• Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models indicate rainfall of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) over Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras, 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over portions of northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala, and Mexico's eastern Yucatan peninsula, and 2.5 cm (1 inch) over portions of the Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua through the evening of Nov. 3. The rainfall could result in flash flooding, especially from northern Honduras northward to Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Swells generated by the storm are likely to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the coming days and are likely to spread to Central America Nov. 1. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center