Central America: Tropical Depression Julia tracking west-northwestward across southern Guatemala Oct. 10 /update 6

Event

Tropical Depression Julia is tracking west-northwestward across southern Guatemala Oct. 10. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 60 km (35 miles) east-northeast of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala.

The storm made landfall near Laguna De Perlas, Nicaragua, early Oct. 9 as a Category 1 hurricane and tracked across Nicaragua before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean close to the border with Honduras late Oct. 9. The system has skirted along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and southern Guatemala late Oct. 9-early Oct. 10.

Forecast models indicate the system will dissipate in the coming hours over southern Guatemala. The remnants of the storm are expected to track northwestward across southern Guatemala towards the border with Mexico in Chiapas State. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 10, authorities have discontinued all watches and warnings for the storm. Local meteorological agencies may continue weather warnings and public advisories across parts of the affected area due to adverse conditions brought by the storm.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations through Oct. 11 of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) over El Salvador and southern Guatemala and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico, as well as additional accumulations of 0.4-1.2 cm (1-3 inches) over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and 0.4-0.8 cm (1-2 inches) over Belize, the rest of Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides across Central America through Oct. 10 and flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec through Oct. 11. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala Oct. 10.

Colombian authorities have imposed a curfew over San Andres through 06:00 Oct. 11 to limit the number of people outside. Authorities have resumed operations at Gustavo Rojas Pinilla International Airport (ADZ) in San Andres and El Embrujo Airport (PVA) in Providencia. Reports indicate that in San Andres, two people were injured and 101 houses were damaged.

Authorities in Nicaragua evacuated more than 13,000 families from the eastern coastal areas of the country ahead of the storm's approach. More than 800 houses have been flooded and around one million people in coastal regions lost power due to downed power lines and officials cutting electricity for safety reasons.

Authorities in Honduras have reported three fatalities associated with the passing of the storm. More than 6,000 people have been evacuated due to floods, overflowing rivers, and landslides. Officials in El Salvador opened 61 shelters with the capacity to house around 3,000 people ahead of the storm's approach.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies
Guatemala National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH)
Honduras Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (CENAOS)
Mexico National Meteorological Service
Nicaragua Directorate General of Meteorology
National Meteorological Service of Belize