Iran: Nationwide demonstrations and strikes intensify as of Oct. 27 amid authorities' crackdown /update 7

Event

Demonstrations in Iran are increasingly becoming violent, particularly in the West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. On Oct. 26, which marked the 40th death anniversary of Mahsa Amini, who died in custody for violating the country's dress code in mid-September, authorities fired live ammunition against the protesters in her hometown of Saqqez. On Oct. 27, protesters in Mahabad in West Azerbaijan Province set government buildings on fire; the act will likely trigger security forces to deploy lethal force. Given that authorities have failed to meet the protesters' demands, demonstrations and labor strikes demanding gender equality as well as social and economic reforms will almost certainly continue through early November.

Human rights organizations assert that over 215 protesters, including 28 children, have been killed and hundreds of others wounded during the recent unrest; the official casualty figures released by the Iranian government are significantly lower. The current series of protests erupted in reaction to the Sept. 16 death of Amini in police custody for an alleged violation of the nation's hijab laws. Civil unrest has occurred in many parts of the country, including major cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Karaj, Tabriz, Ahvaz, and Shiraz. The government has also imposed internet restrictions in an effort to hamper activists' ability to mobilize support.

Labor organizations have begun a series of strikes to demand justice and demonstrate solidarity with the protesters. on Oct. 10, oil workers demonstrated in Abadan and Asaluyeh in solidarity with the protest movement. Additional protests and strikes by oil and gas workers remain likely unless authorities end their crackdown and address the issues that have prompted the unrest. Additionally, university students' demonstrations continue in Tehran and elsewhere in the country.

Moreover, Iran's Kurdish region has launched periodic general strikes. Stores and businesses in 15 Kurdish cities, including Sanandaj, Mahabad, Piranshahr, and Bukan, shut down operations in early October to protest the nation's bombing of dissident groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Tehran has accused Kurdish groups in Iraq of fomenting the ongoing demonstrations in Iran.

Security forces have resorted to the use of live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannon to disperse protesters. Authorities have also arrested hundreds of people and continue to detain activists in an attempt to subdue the civil unrest. Against this backdrop, Iran's security agencies could also increase their surveillance and harassment of foreign visitors to the country.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture in major cities until the protests abate. Security forces may respond forcefully - including using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges - to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Officials may tighten internet service restrictions in areas of the country with high protest activity over the coming days.

Context

The protests initially broke out in mid-September in direct response to the death of Amini, a Kurdish woman, while in the custody of Iran's Gasht-e-Ershad or morality police; Amini was charged with violating the nation's laws requiring women to wear hijabs and head scarfs. However, the movement has essentially evolved into a national revolt against the Iranian government and its security apparatus, with Amini's death becoming a rallying cry for millions of Iranians who are demanding that authorities abolish the Gasht-e-Ershad, among other reforms.

Since the start of the protest campaign, the white-and-green vehicles used by the morality police have reportedly stopped patrolling the streets of Tehran. However, it is unlikely that authorities will introduce serious social and political reforms, including relaxing the country's dress code.

Additionally, while the demonstrations have shown no sign of abating, particularly now that the school and university students are involved, the government’s coercive power and capacity remain immense. Authorities can deploy the Iranian Artesh or regular army, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The regime could also deploy the Basij, Iran’s Organization for the Mobilization of the Oppressed (Sazeman-e Basij-e Mostazafen). The Basij was established in April 1980 with the express purpose of suppressing dissidents and putting down domestic social unrest.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Iran until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all large gatherings and areas where security forces have deployed. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.