Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 10; Russia conducts multiple missile strikes across Ukraine /update 186

Event

Ukrainian military sources claim that Russia fired at least 83 missiles at Ukrainian targets, Oct. 10. Missiles struck cities across western, central, and southern Ukraine, including Kyiv, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Ricne, Ternopil, Khmelnitski, Ivano Frankivsk, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kremenchuk. Multiple casualties have been reported, including at least 10 deaths. This is the largest wave of strikes since the early phases of the conflict. The missile strikes caused power, water, travel, and internet disruptions in several cities. A number of other missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian surface-to-air defenses. In a significant development, the Russian military routed some missiles over Belarus. Further air attacks are likely.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are continuing in several eastern and southern regions, Oct. 10, including in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. Overall, these operations have slowed in recent days as Ukrainian forces rest, resupply, and prepare for a possible Russian counterattack.

Following the large explosion along the rail and road Crimean Bridge connecting the Kerch Peninsula, Crimea, and the Taman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai, Russia, early Oct. 8, road and rail traffic has resumed but at significantly reduced levels. Part of the bridge has been destroyed. The cause of the blast remains unclear; however, there are indications that a bomb caused the explosion.

In Kharkiv Region, Ukrainian forces continue to advance. Ukrainian troops appear to be heading towards Svatove, which represents a key location in the Russian new defensive line. Tavilzhanka remains contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces. However, Pershotravneve, Stel'makhivka, and Makiivka are confirmed in Ukrainian hands. Kharkiv was bombed heavily again, Oct. 10, causing disruptions to electricity and water distribution services.

Russian forces continue offensive operations in Donetsk Region; however, attacks between Avdiivka and Mariinka continue to be repelled. In Bakhmut, Russian troops have finally reached the southern outskirts of the city. Fighting is ongoing in both northern and southern sectors of the city. In Soledar, however, there has been no advance on the Russian side while in the south Optyne is assessed to be still in Ukrainian hands, despite a slight Russian advance over the last few days.

There have been no major developments along the Zaporizhzhia frontline recently. Ukrainian partisan activity is reportedly ongoing in the vicinity of Melitopol.

In Kherson Region, fighting is ongoing north and northwest of Kherson city. Russian forces have attempted a small counterattack in the town of Ternovy Pody, without success. Mykolaiv continues to be targeted near daily by Russian missiles.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Oct. 10, nearly 300 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over six million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

The Crimean Bridge incident on Oct. 8 is highly significant. The bridge is a political symbol of Russian control over Crimea and an important transport and logistical hub connecting Crimea and Russia. The incident could spark increasing concerns among Russian forces in southern Ukraine and impact morale, already heavily affected by recent battlefield reversals. This could serve to hasten disorganized Russian military withdrawals. Should transport along the bridge be affected for any length of time Russian supply lines would need to rely more heavily on Zaporizhzhia Region, which is affected by anti-Russian partisan activity, particularly around the road and rail hub of Melitopol; Zaporizhzhia Region could also be highly vulnerable to future Ukrainian offensive operations.

Kyiv maintains tight control on information emerging from the conflict zone, particularly information related to the movements and positions of Ukrainian forces. However, following a series of battlefield setbacks, the posture of Russian forces in some areas appears to be weakening, particularly in Kharkiv Region and northern parts of Kherson Region. Much will depend on the division of Ukrainian forces between continuing offensive action and consolidating territorial gains. Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. Localized and limited offensive actions are likely.

Despite significant changes on the battlefield in recent weeks, the prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation on Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin. Recent reports strongly allege that Russia has made extensive use of prisoners in the battle for the Donbas. This would allow the Kremlin to maintain the tempo of attacks in this region, without necessitating a call for general mobilization.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. On Oct. 10, the US Embassy advised its citizens to consider the leaving Ukraine by ground transport when it was safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service