Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 14 /update 187

Event

Military operations are continuing in several eastern and southern regions of Ukraine Oct. 14, including in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions.

In Kharkiv Region, Ukrainian forces continue to advance, having reportedly retaken Krokhmalne, Pischane, Berestove, and Tabaivka located between Kupyansk and Svatove. Russian troops once again launched missile attacks on Kharkiv city on Oct. 14.

There have been no major developments along the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson frontlines in the past several days. Ukrainian partisan activity is reportedly ongoing in the vicinity of Melitopol. Mykolaiv continues to be targeted by Russian missiles on an almost daily basis.

Russian forces continue offensive operations in Donetsk Region. Ukrainian defenders continue to repel attacks on Krasnohorivka. In Bakhmut, fighting is ongoing in both the northern and southern sectors of the city.

Disruptions and Shortages
According to Ukrainian authorities, the power grid has been stabilized as of Oct. 14 following the Russian missile strikes that specifically targeted the nation's energy infrastructure over the previous days.

Merchant vessels continue to depart the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying grains and other foodstuffs under the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Following a series of battlefield setbacks, the posture of Russian forces in some areas appears to be weakening, particularly in Kharkiv Region and northern parts of Kherson Region. Much will depend on the division of Ukrainian forces between continuing offensive action and consolidating territorial gains. Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. Localized and limited offensive actions are likely.

The Crimean Bridge explosion of Oct. 8 also brings new complications for Moscow's war effort. Aside from being a political symbol of Russian control over Crimea, the span is an important transport and logistical hub connecting the annexed peninsula with Russia. While limited traffic has already resumed along the bridge, full repairs of the structure will not be completed until the summer of 2023. Protracted significant transport disruptions on the Crimean Bridge could force Russian supply lines to rely more heavily on Zaporizhzhia Region, which is affected by anti-Russian partisan activity, particularly around the road and rail hub of Melitopol; Zaporizhzhia Region could also be highly vulnerable to future Ukrainian offensive operations.

Despite significant changes on the battlefield in recent weeks, the prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation on Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before winter sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service