Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 20 /update 189

Event

Russian forces have intensified their air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine through mid-October. Many Ukrainian cities and regions have been targeted in recent days including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. Ukrainian authorities claim to have shot down a high proportion of missiles and drones, but state that a number of civilian infrastructure targets have been damaged. Moscow has augmented these air strikes with recently acquired Iranian Shahed-136 drones. Russian air strikes against civilian power generation and distribution targets are highly likely to continue in coming days.

Authorities in Kyiv have introduced rolling electricity blackouts, Oct. 20, for a maximum of four hours at a time, in order to stabilize and repair the power grid. President Zelensky declared on Oct. 18 that around 30-percent of the national power generation was destroyed, and that power supplies were in a “critical situation”. Further blackouts and interruptions to water supplies are likely to continue across the country in coming days.

Russian authorities imposed martial law in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Oct. 19; the four regions "annexed" by Moscow on Sept. 21. Noting that Russian authorities do not control all of any of these four regions, the martial law edict gives regional leaders potentially sweeping powers, including to take control of transport and communications infrastructure and to temporarily resettle civilians.

In Kherson, Russian authorities have started to evacuate civilians towards the east of the River Dnieper, Oct. 20. It is likely that the focus is on Russian-backed organizations, administrators, and collaborators, to a new "regional capital" in Henichesk, 320-kilometers (200-miles) further east. Authorities have stated that 50,000-60,000 civilians will be displaced to Russia or to Russia-controlled areas; it is not known whether there will be forced removals. It is likely that this Russian decision is in expectation of a Ukrainian attack on Kherson and pre-empts a possible Russian troop withdrawal from west of the Dnieper.

The land campaign of military operations is continuing in several eastern and southern regions of Ukraine Oct. 20, including in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions.

In Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions, a limited Russian ground offensive near the village of Ohirtseve was repelled by Ukrainian forces, Oct. 18. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops continue to advance towards Svatove.

There have been no major developments in Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia regions, although Ukrainian defenders continue to repel Russian attacks around Bakhmut.

Russian troops have deployed to Belarus for joint exercises as part of a "regional grouping", announced by President Lukashenko Oct. 10. It is likely that these maneuvers will be used to train recently mobilized Russian troops, rather than presaging a new offensive into Ukraine.

Disruptions and Shortages
Electricity rationing and blackouts are likely to continue in coming days.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals

Context

Following a series of battlefield setbacks, the posture of Russian forces in some areas appears to be weakening, particularly in Kharkiv Region and northern parts of Kherson Region. Much will depend on the division of Ukrainian forces between continuing offensive action and consolidating territorial gains. Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. Localized and limited offensive actions are likely.

The Crimean Bridge explosion of Oct. 8 also brings new complications for Moscow's war effort. Aside from being a political symbol of Russian control over Crimea, the span is an important transport and logistical hub connecting the annexed peninsula with Russia. While limited traffic has already resumed along the bridge, full repairs of the structure will not be completed until the summer of 2023. Protracted significant transport disruptions on the Crimean Bridge could force Russian supply lines to rely more heavily on Zaporizhzhia Region, which is affected by anti-Russian partisan activity, particularly around the road and rail hub of Melitopol; Zaporizhzhia Region could also be highly vulnerable to future Ukrainian offensive operations.

Despite significant changes on the battlefield in recent weeks, the prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation on Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before winter sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service