Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 4 /update 184

Event

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are continuing in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions as of Oct. 4. In the Kherson Region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly continued to advance southward after recording steady gains in northern parts of the region in recent days. According to emerging reports, Ukrainian forces are advancing along two main axes in the area, threatening to envelop retreating Russian troops. Following the recapture of Dudchany Oct. 3-4, Ukrainian forces are also attempting to advance southward along the Dnieper River, while forces that reportedly fully liberated Davydiv Brid earlier on Oct. 4 are advancing in a south-easterly direction toward Chkalove. Russian forces in the area are reportedly undergoing an uncoordinated withdrawal.

Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv Region liberated several settlements east of the Oskil River on Oct. 3, including Borova and Shyikivka. Though the counteroffensive in the region has slowed considerably, further Ukrainian advances north and south of these settlements threaten to encircle Russian forces in the area; a resultant Russian withdrawal is increasingly likely, as Russia appears to lack the manpower to defend this area effectively. Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing toward settlements on the administrative border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions as of Oct. 4.

Ukrainian forces recaptured the city of Lyman in the northern Donetsk Region on Oct. 1; Russian troops in Lyman evacuated east towards Kreminna as Ukrainian forces encircled the city. Lyman had been a key logistics hub for Russian forces operating in northern Ukraine since its capture in May. Russia's defeat in the city came one day after Moscow officially annexed Donetsk and three other Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

Russian forces continue to launch attacks on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and south but have made no tangible territorial gains in recent days. Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attacks further south in Donetsk Region around Avdiivka and Marinka. Reports suggest Russian offensive actions in these areas are lessening in frequency and intensity, indicating likely increasing fatigue among Russian forces.

Russian missile attacks and airstrikes have also continued. Moscow-backed troops struck a civilian convoy near Kupyansk Oct. 1, killing at least 24 people; this follows a strike on a humanitarian convoy on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia Sept. 30, killing at least 30 people and injuring 88 more. Russian troops continue to shell targets in Kharkiv Region despite their withdrawal, particularly along the line of contact and the international border with Russia. Russian troops also continue to shell Mykolaiv in addition to Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Region. There have been no significant territorial changes in Zaporizhzhia Region for several days.

Disruptions and Shortages
Almost 240 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over five million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Kyiv maintains tight control on information emerging from the conflict zone, particularly information related to the movements and positions of Ukrainian forces. However, following a series of battlefield setbacks, the posture of Russian forces in some areas appears to be weakening, particularly in the Kharkiv Region and northern parts of the Kherson Region. Much will depend on the division of Ukrainian forces between continuing offensive action and consolidating territorial gains. Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term.

Despite significant changes on the battlefield in recent weeks, the prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation on Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and will refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin. Recent reports strongly allege that Russia has made extensive use of prisoners in the battle for the Donbas. This would allow the Kremlin to maintain the tempo of attacks in this region, without necessitating a call for general mobilization.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service