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10 Nov 2022 | 04:33 AM UTC

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Nicole tracking west-northwestward and approaching Florida, US late Nov. 9 /update 4

Hurricane Nicole tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Nov. 9. Landfall imminent near Fort Pierce. Fla., US.

Critical

Event

Hurricane Nicole is tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Nov. 9 following landfall over northwestern Bahamas earlier in the day. As of 22:00 EST, the storm's center of circulation was 125 km (75 miles) east-northeast of West Palm Beach, Florida, US.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane over the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula near Fort Pierce in the early hours of Nov. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken overland as it tracks northwestward over the central Florida Peninsula Nov. 10 and may briefly emerge into the Gulf of Mexico off the northwest coast of the Florida Peninsula before turning to track northward over northern Florida late Nov. 10. The storm is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward over southern and central Georgia early Nov. 11, before turning to the northeast and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks rapidly across western South Carolina and western North Carolina through Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days. Nicole is producing a large wind field and hazards are likely to extend a great distance from the center of circulation, especially to the north of the forecast path.

As of 22:00 EST Nov. 9, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Hurricane Warning

  • The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas

  • Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia County Line, Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

  • Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas

  • Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida

  • Flagler-Volusia County Line, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

  • North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida

  • Lake Okeechobee

Storm Surge Warning

  • North Palm Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

  • Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, Florida

  • Anclote River to Ochlockonee River in Florida

Hurricane Watch

  • Lake Okeechobee

Storm Surge Watch

  • Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

  • South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach, Florida

  • Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are forecast to continue across portions of the northwestern Bahamas through Nov. 9 while tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina as well as the west coast of Florida in the warning areas into Nov. 10. Hurricane conditions are likely in Florida late Nov. 9 or early Nov. 10.

Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations through Nov. 11 of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) across the northwestern Bahamas and into eastern, central, and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula; 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) for Southeast US into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio; and 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds and by as much as 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge as well as from Anclote River to Ochlockonee River. Smaller storm surges are likely for parts of the east coast of Florida northward along the coasts of Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Tornadoes are possible across east-central to northeast Florida through early Nov. 10. The tornado threat is forecast to increase and gradually expand north into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina through Nov. 10. Some tornado risk is forecast across eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina late Nov. 10 through early Nov. 11. Tornadoes remain possible over central to eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Nov. 11. Large swells generated by Nicole are likely to affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern US coast over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in the Bahamas stated that more than 860 people have evacuated to more than 24 shelters. Reports indicate extensive flooding, fallen trees, and power and water outages in the northwest region. Schools and government offices, except for essential services, are closed on Abaco, Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama until the all-clear is given by authorities. Airports and sea ports on the affected islands are likely to be closed when wind speeds reach 40 knots. Lynden Pindling International Airport (NAS) in Nassau is open and operating as of Nov. 9; however, authorities have warned that airline schedules may vary. Bahamas Power and Light have suspended electricity disconnections in islands subject to storm warnings.

In Florida, authorities declared a state of emergency for 34 counties Nov. 7 and President Biden approved an emergency declaration affecting 45 of the state's 67 counties Nov. 8 ahead of the approach of the storm. Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for parts of Flagler, Nassau, Palm Beach, Putnam, and Volusia counties and voluntary evacuations for Brevard, Indian River, Martin, St. Johns, and St. Lucie counties. Further evacuation orders may be issued by authorities in the coming days. Authorities in Volusia County have issued an emergency countywide curfew through 07:00 Nov. 10. Several airports in central and southern Florida have announced that operations will be suspended due to the approach of the storm, including Orlando International (MCO), Melbourne Orlando International (MLB), Orlando Sanford International (SFB), Palm Beach International (PBI), Daytona Beach International (DAB), and Vero Beach Regional (VRB) airports. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International (FLL), Miami International (MIA), and Tampa International (TPA) airports remain open, but officials warn that cancellations and delays remain possible. Other airports in affected areas could announce closures in the coming hours as the storm approaches.

Amtrak, Brightline, SunRail, and TriRail services as well as Florida Central, Florida Midland, Florida Northern, and Port Manatee railroads are suspended while Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties have discontinued shared shuttles, electric golf cart rides, and private rides. The Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority (HART) suspended bus, van, and streetcar services Nov. 10. State drawbridges in Brevard, Broward, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, and Volusia counties are locked down for marine traffic but remain open to vehicular traffic. Ports Canaveral, Everglades, Fernandina, Fort Pierce, JAXPORT, Miami, and Palm Beach are closed. As of late Nov. 9, reports indicate that more than 12,000 people across Florida are without power, mainly on the east coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center