Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Nicole tracking west-southwestward late Nov. 8 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Nicole is tracking west-southwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Nov. 8. As of 22:00 EST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 240 km (150 miles) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it turns to track westward and makes landfall as a category 1 hurricane over North Abaco District in the northwestern Bahamas the afternoon of Nov. 9. The system is forecast to maintain its strength as it turns to track northwestward, passing north of Grand Bahama before making landfall over the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula, near Fort Pierce early Nov. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken overland as it tracks northwestward and then north-northwestward over the central and northern Florida Peninsula Nov. 10. The storm is likely to turn to the north over the far eastern Florida Panhandle the evening of Nov. 10 and is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks rapidly across the eastern US and New Brunswick Province, Canada through the evening of Nov. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of 22:00 EST Nov. 8, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Hurricane Warning

• The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas

• Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia County Line in Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

• Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas

• Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton in Florida

• Flagler-Volusia County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

• Lake Okeechobee

Storm Surge Warning

• North Palm Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

• Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, Florida

Hurricane Watch

• Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton in Florida

• Lake Okeechobee

• Flagler-Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

Tropical Storm Watch

• South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef, Florida

• North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

• North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

Storm Surge Watch

• South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach in Florida

• Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

• Anclote River to Indian Pass in Florida

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area Nov. 9 and are possible along the coast of Florida in the hurricane watch area by late Nov. 9. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the northwestern Bahamas from late Nov. 8 and will extend across parts of Florida late Nov. 8-9. Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations through Nov. 11 of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) across the northwestern Bahamas and into eastern, central, and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula, as well as 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) for Southeast US into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of North Palm Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge in areas of onshore winds. Smaller storm surge of 0.3-1.2 meters (1-4 feet) is also possible along parts of the east coast of Florida and the coast of southeastern Georgia. Large swells generated by Nicole are expected to affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern US coast during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in the Bahamas are opening numerous shelters across the country in preparation for the storm and advised residents in Grand Bahama and Abaco to take shelter or evacuate any low-lying areas or compromised structures. Schools will be closed and at least ten airports across the Bahamas will close from Nov. 8. Lynden Pindling International Airport (NAS) in Nassau is operating as normal as of Nov. 8; however, authorities have warned that operations are likely to be suspended for several hours from early Nov. 9 due to the passing of the storm. Bahamas Power and Light has suspended power in islands subject to storm warnings.

In Florida, authorities declared a state of emergency for 34 counties Nov. 7 ahead of the approach of the storm. Schools will be closed in several districts Nov. 9-10, and shelters are being established across the affected area. Authorities have issued evacuation orders for barrier islands, low-lying areas, and mobile homes in Flagler, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties and voluntary evacuations for Brevard, Indian River, Martin, Putnam, St. Johns, and St. Lucie counties. Orlando International Airport (MCO) is closed from 16:00 Nov. 9 until further notice. Melbourne Orlando International Airport (MLB) is closed from 12:00 Nov. 9; authorities estimate that the airport will reopen Nov. 10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center