DRC: East African Community leaders agree on a ceasefire in eastern regions from Nov. 25 /update 2

Event

Leaders of the East African Community (EAC) have agreed on a cessation of hostilities in eastern DRC from 18:00 Nov. 25 following talks in Luanda, Angola Nov. 23. The ceasefire notably includes the withdrawal of M23 rebels from occupied territories and its disarmament, the continued deployment of the EAC regional force, and the resumption of dialogue between DRC and Rwanda, among other things.

M23 rebels have not signed the agreement and are therefore not bound to it. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC which has so far refused. The EAC stated it would use military means in the event M23 rebels do not comply with the decisions. Kenya has already deployed about 900 troops in Goma, while Uganda and Burundi contingents are expected to be operational in the short term. While M23 operations may continue over the coming days, the capture of Goma appears unlikely.

Over the coming weeks, a heightened security presence is certain in the area. Further violence is likely as security forces attempt to restore control in the area. Officials in the DRC could implement movement-restrictive measures. Clashes and security force responses could also impact routes in the area, including the N2 road between Goma and Rutshuru. Locals may also stage protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of security forces. Such protests have been frequent in recent weeks.

Context

Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC, while tensions have increased between Rwanda and the DRC. In June, the M23 captured the town of Bunagana, Rutshuru Territory; as of the end of November, M23 rebels remain in control of the town. Rebels also took control of several localities along the strategic road connecting Butembo and Goma. The latest fighting between the M23 rebel group and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) took place near Kibumba and Rugari, located about 20 km (13 miles) north of Goma.

The UK and French embassies updated their travel advisories for Goma as of Nov. 16 due to ongoing clashes between M23 rebels and security forces. The UK advises against all travel to Goma, warning that all existing routes out of Goma, including the airport and border, could close at short notice. French authorities have urged their nationals in Goma to remain at home and not go outside except in extreme necessity, further advising them to have a sufficient supply of medicines and food and to carry all their travel and identity documents. US authorities have issued a related security alert, advising that some nongovernmental organizations in Goma have instructed their staff to shelter in place or to leave the city.

The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, allowing the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. In April, the group allowed for a truce with the government; however, it did not attend peace talks launched between the government and armed groups in Kenya.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in and around the impacted locations. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Reconfirm the status of public transportation, road routes and border crossings before departure.