Ethiopia: Government signs peace deal with TPLF rebels Nov. 2 /update 9

Event

The Ethiopian government and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels signed an agreement to end the military conflict in the country's northern regions Nov. 2. Under the accord, mediated by the African Union, the warring parties have agreed to cease hostilities, restore services and law and order, and permit unrestricted access to humanitarian supplies. The sides have also agreed to a disarmament plan under the deal. The agreement follows recent military gains by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), including the capture of the strategic towns of Shire, Axum, and Adwa in Tigray Region in late October.

Despite the agreement, further clashes are likely in Tigray and neighboring Afar and Amhara regions over the near term. Telecommunications disruptions, heightened security measures, and movement restrictions, including curfews and roadblocks, are likely to continue. Rallies in response to the peace deal may occur, particularly in Addis Ababa's Meskel Square; there is an elevated threat of violence at these events. All gatherings will likely result in localized ground transport disruptions.

Context

The direct involvement of Eritrean forces in the conflict, critical to the Ethiopian government’s war effort, has complicated the security situation in northern Ethiopia. Eritrea did not participate in the formal negotiations that led to the Nov. 2 agreement and may undermine the peace deal if its forces stage significant assaults on the TPLF rebels over the coming weeks.

The most recent round of fighting in the country's north flared in late August, breaching the March 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement; both the federal government and TPLF rebels blamed each other for the resumption of conflict.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted in attacks, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions should liaise with trusted contacts.

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form and take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with diplomatic missions.