Mexico: Tropical Depression Lisa tracking westward over southwestern Campeche State as of Nov. 3 /update 5

Event

Tropical Depression Lisa is tracking westward over southwestern Campeche State in southeastern Mexico Nov. 3 following landfall over Belize Nov. 2. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 110 km (65 miles) southeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it tracks generally west-northwestward into Tabasco State before exiting into the Bay of Campeche late Nov. 3-early Nov. 4. The system is then likely to remain a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward and north-northwestward in the Bay of Campeche Nov. 4-early Nov. 5. The storm is subsequently forecast to make a sharp turn to the southeast and then south-southeast early Nov. 5-early Nov. 6 before dissipating. No further landfall is forecast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 3, authorities have discontinued all coastal watches and warnings associated with the storm system. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.

Forecast models indicate Lisa will bring rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across Tabasco, northwestern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz states in Mexico. as well as additional accumulations of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The rainfall could result in flash flooding in parts of the affected areas, especially in southeastern Mexico.

Authorities in Belize have declared a state of emergency for Belize and Stann Creek districts indefinitely. Philip S.W. Goldson International Airport (BZE), seaports, and bus transportation have been closed until conditions improve. Schools are also closed. Officials have advised the public to avoid travel; only essential services are operational. Evacuation shelters have been established across the country and as of Nov. 2 more than 1,200 people were being accommodated in 12 shelters across Belize City. Reports indicate that much of Belize City is without power and water due to damage to infrastructure. Authorities were carrying out damage assessments following the passage of the storm as of early Nov. 3 and it could take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is ascertained.

Authorities in Guatemala have confirmed that flooding has impacted around 95 people in Melchor de Mencos and moderately damaged some structures.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)