Mexico: Tropical Depression Lisa tracking westward over Tabasco State as of late Nov. 3 /update 6

Event

Tropical Depression Lisa is tracking westward over Tabasco State in southeastern Mexico late Nov. 3 following landfall over Belize the previous day. As of 22:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 150 km (90 miles) west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will enter the Bay of Campeche in the coming hours. The system is then likely to remain a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward and northward in the Bay of Campeche Nov. 4-early Nov. 5. The storm is subsequently forecast to make a sharp turn to the east and then south early Nov. 5-early Nov. 6 before dissipating. No further landfall is forecast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Nov. 3, authorities have discontinued all coastal watches and warnings associated with the storm system. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days. Forecast models indicate rainfall will continue to diminish. Additional rainfall of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) is likely across southeastern Mexico through Nov. 3.

Authorities in Belize have rescinded the state of emergency for Belize and Stann Creek districts. The Government of Belize has imposed a 19:00-06:00 curfew through Nov. 6 in the Belize District except for San Pedro and Caye Caulker. Emergency crews have established evacuation shelters across the country, and more than 370 people remain in shelters as of late Nov. 3. The storm surge has resulted in flooding in most of Belize City, with disruptions to power and water supplies due to damage to infrastructure. As of late Nov. 3, authorities have restored most water services, and they estimate that regular power supply will resume by Nov. 6. All classes are scheduled to resume Nov. 7. Damage assessments are underway following the storm's passage. It could take some time before authorities can ascertain the full extent of the storm's impact.

Authorities in Guatemala have confirmed that flooding has impacted around 95 people in Melchor de Mencos and moderately damaged some structures.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)