Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Nov. 16 /update 194

Event

Russian forces have continued their campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine, launching a major attack on critical infrastructure nationwide Nov. 15. Ukrainian officials state the attack was the largest so far, with Moscow launching around 100 missiles but claim that approximately 70 of those were intercepted by air defense systems. Missile strikes were reported in several regions, including in the central Pechersk District of Kyiv, in addition to locations in western and central Ukraine, including Lviv, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia. The strikes damaged at least 15 critical infrastructure facilities nationwide, resulting in major power outages in multiple cities, including Kyiv and Lviv; damage to a power line also resulted in temporary disruption to power supplies in neighboring Moldova. The attacks in Kyiv struck a residential building killing one individual. An explosion also occurred in Prezwodow, Poland, near the Ukrainian border at the same time as the wave of Russian missile strikes, killing two; NATO authorities have stated the damage was likely caused by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles fired as part of air defense systems.

Military operations are continuing in southern and easter regions of Ukraine as of Nov. 16. Ukrainian troops entered Kherson city Nov. 11 after Russian force withdrew from the city Nov. 9. Ukrainian troops are securing Kherson city and territory west of the Dnipro River while Russian troops are taking defensive positions on the east of the river. Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian troops may be attempting to advance further east around Nova Khakova and the Kinburn Spi. However, military officials are maintaining silence on their operations in this area.

Ukrainian forces are continuing their offensive in Luhansk Region in the areas around Kreminna and Svatove but have not gained significant territory in recent days. Russian troops in the region reportedly attempted to counterattack towards Novoselivske Nov. 15 but were repelled. Moscow is continuing its offensive efforts in the Donetsk region, particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka; unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces are in control of around half of Marinka and may have captured Opytne, south of Avdiivka.

Disruptions and Shortages

The power supply is being restored in several areas following the Nov. 15 attacks on critical infrastructure. Ukrenergo, the national power company, will likely implement periodic restrictions on energy consumption, including rolling blackouts, impacting specific regions in order to stabilize the grid or carry out repairs. These are in addition to short-notice disruptions to energy and water supplies as a result of damage to infrastructure immediately following Russian airstrikes.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv. Passenger rail services between Mykolaiv and Kyiv resumed Nov. 14. However, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Feb. 19. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite reentering the city of Kherson, Ukrainian forces will require time and resources to secure recaptured territory in addition to repairing infrastructure and demining the area to remove unexploded ordinances. Ukrainian officials are restricting information on military operations in this area. It is unclear whether they intend to quickly resume offensive activity to take additional territory in the Kherson Region east of the Dnipro River. Moscow will likely focus on securing defensive positions on the left bank of the river in an attempt to prevent this from occurring.

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking a major city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. The Russian soldiers withdrawn from Kherson city are better trained than the recently mobilized troops, and groups of these forces could be sent to assist in this offensive. Elsewhere, Moscow will likely seek to continue establishing effective defensive postures amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term.

As a result, the Kremlin has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways to intimidate Ukraine and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes the increase in air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure intended to disrupt civilians' energy and water supplies over the winter period. Further waves of attack are likely in the coming weeks. Ukrainian air defense systems are improving and intercepting an increasing number of munitions; however, some missiles will inevitably strike their targets, and collateral damage to civilians and infrastructure remains a likely outcome of such attacks. International tensions initially increased dramatically following the missile strike in Poland, a NATO member, Nov. 15. However, following investigations concluding that the missile likely originated in Ukraine and was fired as part of air defense systems, Poland has not invoked articles 4 or 5 of the NATO Charter which would have marked a significant escalation in the conflict. Nonetheless, several governments continue to condemn Moscow for the attacks that necessitated Ukraine's use of air defense systems.

The prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv will likely be able to achieve their overall objectives before winter sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service