US: Tropical Nicole tracking west-northwestward over west-central Florida Nov. 10 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm Nicole is tracking west-northwestward over west-central Florida Nov. 10 having passed over the northwestern Bahamas Nov. 9 and making landfall south of Vero Beach, Florida, in the early hours of Nov. 10 as a Category 1 hurricane. As of 10:00 EST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 50 km (30 miles) northeast of Tampa, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken as it tracks northwestward and emerges over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Nov. 10. The system is expected to track along the coast of the northwestern Florida Peninsula and southern Big Bend before turning northward and moving back overland and tracking over northern Florida and southern Georgia late Nov. 10. The storm is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks northward over southern and central Georgia early Nov. 11, before turning to the northeast and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks rapidly across northeastern Georgia, northwestern South Carolina, western North Carolina, and into western Virginia through Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of 10:00 EST Nov. 10, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Tropical Storm Warning

• Sebastian Inlet, Florida. to South Santee River, South Carolina

• Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida

Storm Surge Warning

• Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound. Georgia

• Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, Florida

• Anclote River to Ochlockonee River, Florida

Storm Surge Watch

• Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

• Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Tropical storm conditions are forecast to continue across portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas late Nov. 10 and into Nov. 11. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida through early Nov. 11.

Forecast models indicate total rainfall accumulations through Nov. 12 of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) across the northwestern Bahamas and portions of the Florida Peninsula; 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) for the southeastern US into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio; and 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge, as well as from Anclote River to Ochlockonee River. Smaller storm surges are likely for parts of the east coast of Florida northward along the coasts of Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Tornadoes are possible across coastal areas of east-central and northeastern Florida early Nov. 10. The tornado threat is forecast to expand northward into southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Nov. 10-early Nov. 11. A tornado watch has been issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) for parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia through 13:00 EST Nov. 10. Large swells generated by Nicole are likely to affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern US coast over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in the Bahamas have given the all-clear for all islands of the northwestern Bahamas as of early Nov. 10 following the passing of the storm. Damage assessments are ongoing to ascertain the impact of Nicole. Showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the northwest and central Bahamas through Nov. 11.

In Florida, authorities declared a state of emergency for 34 counties Nov. 7 and President Biden approved an emergency declaration affecting 45 of the state's 67 counties Nov. 8 ahead of the approach of the storm. Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for parts of Flagler, Nassau, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties and voluntary evacuations for Brevard, Highlands, Indian River, Martin, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, and St. Lucie counties. Further evacuation orders may be issued by authorities in the coming hours and days. Several airports in central and southern Florida have suspended operations due to the approach of the storm, including Orlando International (MCO), Melbourne Orlando International (MLB), Orlando Sanford International (SFB), Palm Beach International (PBI), Daytona Beach International (DAB), and Vero Beach Regional (VRB) airports. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International (FLL), Miami International (MIA), and Tampa International (TPA) airports remain open, but officials warn that cancellations and delays remain possible. Other airports in affected areas could announce closures in the coming hours as the storm approaches. More than 1,200 flights across the US have been canceled Nov. 10 after around 900 were canceled Nov. 9.

Amtrak, Brightline, SunRail, and TriRail services as well as Florida Central, Florida Midland, Florida Northern, and Port Manatee railroads are suspended while Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties have discontinued shared shuttles, electric golf cart rides, and private rides. The Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority (HART) suspended bus, van, and streetcar services Nov. 10. State drawbridges in Brevard, Broward, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, and Volusia counties are locked down for marine traffic but remain open to vehicular traffic. Ports Canaveral, Everglades, Fernandina, Fort Pierce, JAXPORT, Miami, and Palm Beach are closed. As of early Nov. 10, reports indicate that more than 350,000 customers across Florida are without power, mainly on the east coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
US National Weather Service