Fiji: Protests possible nationwide after general election results in parliamentary deadlock Dec. 19 /update 1

Event

Fiji's third general elections Dec. 14 resulted in a parliamentary deadlock after no political party secured an absolute majority at the polls. The incumbent Fijifirst party, led by Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, secured 26 out of 55 parliamentary seats but failed to win an outright majority. Reports indicate that the opposition parties are forming a coalition following the official result. Meanwhile, opposition leader and former Prime Minister Sitiveni Ligamamada Rabuka from the People’s Alliance (PA) has alleged anomalies in the vote-counting process and requested for military intervention.

Political parties and their supporters could hold protests over the coming days amid the political stalemate and allegations of voting fraud. Any arrest or charges against opposition candidates, as well as signs the incumbent FijiFirst party may not accept the results in the event it fails to form the government, could lead to civil unrest. If protests materialize, the largest gatherings could draw hundreds of participants, especially in the capital Suva and in opposition strongholds. Likely protest venues include outside election offices, government, and court buildings, or local political party offices. Localized traffic disruptions are probable in the event of large demonstrations, or if protesters conduct mass marches or block local or intercity routes. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators or between rival political groups cannot be ruled out during any action.

Context

The vote was Fiji's third general election since the 2006 coup led by incumbent Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, who obtained a slim majority with just over 50 percent of the total vote during the 2018 elections. The composition of the new parliament includes the incumbent FijiFirst party with 26 seats, the People's Alliance with 21 seats, the National Federation Party with five seats, and the Social Democratic Liberal Party with three seats. Under the electoral system, a party must win 28 parliamentary seats or more in order to form the government. Bainimarama's FijiFirst party will need the support of at least one of the opposition parties in order to remain in power, but reports indicate that the People's Alliance, National Federation Party, and Social Democratic Liberal Party are currently in the process of forming a coalition together.

Advice

Exercise caution around election offices, government and court buildings, political party offices, and other likely protest sites. Monitor local media or check with trusted local sources for updates on possible post-election demonstrations and associated disruptions, as events could take place with no or little warning. Avoid any protests that may materialize following the vote due to the potential for clashes.