Philippines: Authorities on high alert nationwide ahead of CPP anniversary Dec. 26

Event

Philippine authorities are on high alert ahead of the 54th founding anniversary of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) Dec. 26. The CPP anniversary also coincides with the death of its founding chairman Jose Maria Sison Dec. 16. Security forces have increased vigilance for possible hostilities by the New People's Army (NPA) - the CPP's armed wing. NPA militants may increase attacks, especially against military and police targets, ahead of the anniversary. Authorities have said they would not enter any ceasefire with NPA. Supporters of the group may stage protests, especially in the Mindanao area, on the anniversary date.

Tight security measures are highly likely, particularly in northern, northeastern, and central Mindanao, where the group's militant factions are active. Increased security is also probable in parts of Luzon and the Visayas, where the group has an active presence. Police and military forces will likely increase patrols, set up checkpoints, and strengthen security at installations in these regions. These measures could prompt localized traffic disruptions, though significant delays are unlikely.

The threat of violence is most significant in NPA strongholds in rural areas; NPA attacks in urban centers are rare. Factions of the group have conducted mass raids in the past on security posts and municipal buildings that may serve as armories. Various NPA fronts may attempt to mark the anniversary with attacks on security forces, pro-government militias, mines, telecommunication facilities, plantations, and other agro-industrial sites. Ambushes and landmine attacks are possible in remote areas. Rebels may also attempt to seize hostages - typically soldiers - during raids.

Context

The NPA is active primarily in Mindanao and typically targets security forces using firearms and anti-personnel mines (APM). Security officials have advised against a ceasefire between the government and NPA in past years, claiming that the NPA exploits the cessation in hostilities to recruit additional militants and carry out extortion activities. Nevertheless, increasing surrender rates among militants and effective counter-insurgency operations may impact the capabilities of groups like NPA. However, the poor living conditions of internally displaced people in Mindanao remain an avenue of recruitment for extremist groups.

Advice

Companies and personnel with assets in rural areas affected by the communist insurgency should review security arrangements ahead of the anniversary. Consider postponing overland travel outside major population centers ahead of and on the anniversary date, particularly in northern, northeastern, and central Mindanao. Limit exposure to police, military, and paramilitary posts in rural areas.