South China Sea: Typhoon Krathon tracking northeastward toward southwestern Taiwan late Oct. 2 /update 7

Typhoon Krathon (named Julian in the Philippines) is tracking northeastward over the South China Sea toward southwestern Taiwan late Oct. 2. As of 23:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 400 km (249 miles) south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it continues to track northeastward toward southwestern Taiwan early Oct. 3, before making landfall over Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, during the late morning Oct. 3. After landfall, Krathon will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward over eastern Tainan City and eastern Chiayi County into central Taiwan Oct. 3-early Oct. 4. The system will weaken further as it turns to track northward over western Nantou County and Taichung City in west-central Taiwan Oct. 4-5 before dissipating over Miaoli County late Oct. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 2, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued sea and land typhoon warnings; the areas under land warning include Changhua, Chiayi, Hsinchu, Hualien, Miaoli, Nantou, Penghu, Pingtung, Taitung, and Yilan, Yunlin counties and Chiayi, Hsinchu, Kaohsiung, Taichung, and Tainan cities. Purple extremely heavy rain advisories (the highest level on a four-tier scale) are in place across Taitung County and mountainous parts of Pingtung County, and red, orange, and yellow heavy rain advisories are in effect across much of the rest of Taiwan. Short-term thunderstorm warnings have also been issued across parts of Taiwan and strong wind advisories are in place for most coastal areas.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an updated weather bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern regions and rough seas to coastal waters. PAGASA maintains a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for Batanes Province, Babuyan Islands, northern and western Ilocos Norte Province. A separate weather advisory is also in place advising of further scattered rains and thunderstorms over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon through Oct. 3. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding, damage, and other weather-related disruptions are ongoing across parts of the northern Philippines after the storm tracked close to the northeast of Luzon Sept. 28-29 and over the Batanes Islands early Sept. 30. Two fatalities have been reported in Ilocos Norte Province, where officials have declared a State of Calamity. Another fatality occurred in Cagayan Province due to electrocution. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported that nearly 2,800 people remain displaced and around 200,000 people have been affected across Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera regions as of Oct. 2. Many roads and bridges in the affected regions have been damaged or blocked by flooding and landslides, leaving some communities cut off. More than 300 homes have been damaged and hundreds of schools remain closed across the affected regions.

Taiwan authorities have evacuated almost 10,000 people from vulnerable and landslide-prone mountainous areas ahead of the storm's approach and urged people to avoid visiting coastal and mountainous areas. Severe weather and associated disruptions have been reported in some areas since late Sept. 29 as the storm approaches. Authorities have reported one weather-related fatality, around 70 others injured, and two people missing as of Oct. 2. Landslides have disrupted rail and road networks in some eastern and southern areas, including along Provincial Highway No 9 in Yilan County and Chongde in Hualien County. Airlines canceled some international and domestic flights across Taiwan Oct. 1 and all domestic and dozens of international flights Oct. 2-3. Authorities have halted transportation services between Hualien and Taitung and sections of the South Link Line. Taiwan's national parks and beaches are closed. Ferry operators have suspended services. Schools and offices are closed across Taiwan through at least Oct. 3. The Taipei city government declared a typhoon holiday Oct. 2-3, shutting financial markets.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.