DRC, Rwanda: Further tensions likely between the two countries through at least late January following security incident near Goma Jan. 24

Event

Elevated tensions between DRC and Rwanda are likely through at least late January following a security incident near Goma Jan. 24. On Jan. 24, Rwandan authorities claimed responsibility for targeting a Congolese military aircraft with a ground-to-air projectile at the border between DRC and Rwanda, east of Goma, DRC, stating aircraft violated Rwandan airspace. Following the incident, Rwanda has reportedly deployed its maritime forces on Lake Kivu, some 5 km (3 miles) from Goma. Congolese authorities have denied the aircraft was violating Rwandan airspace and vowed to retaliate should further such incidents occur.

A heightened security presence is likely near Goma, at the border between the DRC and Rwanda, in the coming days. Anti-Rwanda protests are possible. Further security incidents involving the two countries cannot be ruled out.

Context

Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda have increased since the resurgence of the March 23 (M23) rebel group in November 2021 in the eastern DRC. The DRC has accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. The United Nations (UN) has confirmed the allegations.

On Nov. 25, leaders of the East African Community (EAC) agreed on a cessation of hostilities in eastern DRC. Although the ceasefire conditions include the withdrawal of M23 rebels from occupied territories and their disarmament, the continued deployment of the EAC regional force, and the resumption of dialogue between the DRC and Rwanda, M23 rebels have continued their attacks in the eastern DRC, prolonging tensions between the two countries. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC, which has so far refused.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in and around the impacted locations. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Reconfirm the status of public transportation, road routes and border crossings before departure.