Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces through February /update 2

Event

The militant threat affecting Mozambique's northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa, will likely remain elevated through at least February. Attacks by the Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ) Islamist militant group on military and civilian targets, including mining sites, have continued throughout 2022 and are likely to persist. The deployment of international military forces and the recruitment of private security operatives have not prevented militants from progressing further southward.

Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers.

Context

Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado Province, have been subject to an Islamist insurgency since October 2017. In 2022, attacks began spreading to the neighboring Nampula and Niassa provinces. The security situation in Cabo Delgado remains extremely uncertain despite the return of some 300,000 displaced populations to their villages in 2022.

Attacks are linked to militants from ASWJ, also known as Ansar al-Sunna, which has, in turn, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). ASWJ appears to identify with an international Islamist agenda and could aspire to conduct targeted attacks and kidnappings against foreign nationals. ASJW typically attacks security forces and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults; assaults against larger targets have occurred. The latest attack against foreigners targeted a ruby mine near Montepuez in October 2022, claiming no victims but forcing the compound's evacuation.

This has raised concerns that the violence could threaten economically significant oil and gas investments in Cabo Delgado. The Afungi gas site off the coast of Cabo Delgado was attacked in March 2022 and is yet to resume operations. Despite this, Mozambique successfully exported its first shipment of liquified natural gas out of Cabo Delgado in November 2022, and it is likely that companies will further increase their investments in the nascent sector.

The security outlook has improved since the deployment of the SAMIM forces from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in July 2021, and the additional support of the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) in December 2022. The Namibian government, which currently occupies the rotating chairmanship of the SADC Defence committee, has reaffirmed its support for SAMIM - without giving any indication of an end to the intervention. The Armed Forces for the Defence of Mozambique (FADM) have also begun recruiting local militias. These combined local and international forces have retaken key urban areas occupied by the insurgents, forcing them to operate in more rural areas and potentially slowing their spread southward. Insurgents have now proven capable of gaining and retaining control of small villages.

Militants operate in relatively autonomous cells, and their self-reliance contributes to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying their support networks. As of January 2023, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado has killed around 6,500 people and displaced 950,000 more since its inception in 2017. Reports suggest the group is growing larger, with new cells reportedly located near the deep-sea port of Pemba.

In response to the insurgency, various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories for the provinces:

• The UK government advises against all travel to Mueda, Nangade, Palma, Mocimboa da Praia, Muidumbe, Meluco, Macomia, Quissanga, and Ibo districts in Cabo Delgado Province, including the islands off the coast. The government also advises against nonessential travel to Ancuabe, Chiure and Metuge districts, as well as Palma town and the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado, and against nonessential travel to Memba and Erati districts in Nampula province.

• The US government advises against all travel to Ancuabe, Chuire, Ibo, Macomia, Meluco, Metuge, Mocimboa da Praia, Mueda, Muidumbe, Nangade, Palma, and Quissanga districts, and instructs travelers to reconsider travel to Pemba in Cabo Delgado Province.

• The French government advises against all travel to the entire province of Cabo Delgado, including its capital Pemba, as well as the eastern third of Niassa province and along the border with Tanzania into Malawi. Traveling to Ibo and Quirimbas islands are also discouraged. Following recent attacks in Nampula Province, French authorities have advised against all travel to the districts of Mecurubi, Errati, Memba, Nacaroa, Muecate (South), Monapo (North), Meconta (North), Nampula (North), and Nacala (excluding Nacala city) until further notice, and against using the roads north of the main Nampula-Nacala axis. Authorities further advise against nonessential travel to Nampula's districts of Nacala (South), Monapo (South), Mossuril, Muecate (North), Nampula (South), Ribaue and Malima (including the towns of Nampula and Nacala). Nonessential travel to the western part of Niassa Province are also advised against.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.