03 Jan 2025 | 02:33 PM UTC
Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces through at least early February /update 11
Militant threat likely to remain elevated in Mozambique's northern provinces through at least early February amid ongoing political unrest.
The militant threat in Mozambique's northern provinces will likely remain elevated through at least early February. Security forces are still engaged in combatting Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ), whose presence continues to disrupt operations in Cabo Delgado and threaten populations and assets in neighboring Niassa and Nampula provinces. Militant activity has also prevented authorities from providing food, as well as administrative, social, and health services. The passage of tropical cyclone Chido in mid-December may have limited insurgents' movements in recent weeks; their presence has recently been reported in the Muidumbe district. The Mozambican Armed Defense Forces (FADM) and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), along with a network of local militias, continue to maintain an increased presence.
While ongoing political unrest following the Oct. 9 general elections appears not to have led to an increase in militant activity, foreign-owned assets have been compromised by mobs. On Dec. 12, a graphite mine in Balama, Cabo Delgado, was forced to declare force majeure after a dispute over land with local farmers. In December 2024, two other such incidents occurred outside Cabo Delgado: a tantalite mine in Marropino, Zambezia, was closed over a dispute with illegal miners; another tantalite mine in Moma, Nampula, was overrun by residents demanding the owners build a bridge in the area.
Violent attacks on major infrastructure and urban areas could increase on short notice, especially should militants exploit a perceived weakening of security presence due to ongoing political uncertainty. Local mobs may exploit the tense political climate to attack additional compounds. Authorities will certainly maintain increased security levels in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and Nampula and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Additional security measures amid post-election tensions are possible, especially in Nacala, Nampula City, and Pemba. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado and other conflict-impacted locations until officials clear the areas and the situation stabilizes. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Monitor trusted sources for information on civil unrest, especially those targeting civil unrest. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans regularly. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.
Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado, have been subject to a continuous Islamist insurgency since October 2017. The attacks appear to have been initially motivated by an international Islamist agenda, with ASWJ pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), but are also motivated by long-standing socio-economic grievances. IS has reportedly provided weapons, funding, and training to the militants. While not controlling large areas, militants have, since 2023, regularly made use of remote-controlled improvised explosive devices (IEDs), posing a permanent threat to overland travel. In 2024, ASWJ demonstrated its ability to attack small targets at sea when it kidnapped a group of fishermen off the coast of Mocimboa da Praia.
ASWJ poses a threat to Mozambican and foreign interest in the area due to the presence of rich mineral and gas deposits in Cabo Delgado and off Mozambique's coast. Though ASWJ's modus operandi does not typically involve directly targeting foreign nationals – typically attacking local militias, security forces, and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults – assaults against mining operations have sporadically occurred, most recently in 2023. The deadliest incident remains the 2021 attack on Palma, which led to the deaths of 1,402 people, the evacuation of foreign nationals, and the halting of construction on the Afungi Peninsula.
The FADM has benefitted from local and international assistance to secure mining assets and stabilize the situation. Military assistance was first provided by the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), which maintained over 2,000 troops from 2021 to 2024. A remnant of South African troops is set to remain through March 2025 to secure the Mozambican Channel. The SAMIM was joined by RDF troops in 2021 through funding provided by the EU. While the RDF began by concentrating vital assets in the province, its contingent increased from 2,500 to 4,000 to compensate for the SAMIM's departure and now covers the entirety of the province. In 2023, the Mozambican government legalized local militias for additional assistance.
As of early 2025, the insurgency has reportedly killed over 8,000 people and displaced about one million others since it began. Militants remain largely contained to Cabo Delgado, though sporadic attacks as recent as May 2024 have occurred in Nampula. ASWJ's presence continues to disrupt political, industrial, and humanitarian efforts in Cabo Delgado. While civil unrest following the October 2024 election has not led to an uptick in militant attacks, mining operations have been disrupted by protests and land invasions. The group's capacity to raid convoys or attack ore, oil, and gas mining compounds could be cause for concern that it might acquire the means to threaten maritime transport in the near future. Still, foreign partners anticipate resuming the construction of energy infrastructure in Pemba in early 2025; offshore platforms remain operational.
Various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories against travel to Cabo Delgado and restricting travel in certain areas of Niassa and Nampula.
