06 Jan 2025 | 01:01 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further disruptive protests likely nationwide through mid-January ahead of inauguration /update 16
Further opposition protests likely in Mozambique through mid-January ahead of Jan. 9 opposition leader return and Jan. 15 inauguration.
Increased security, disruptions, and violence are likely through at least mid-January ahead of the Jan. 13 opening of Parliament and the Jan. 15 Presidential inauguration. Venancio Mondlane, exiled candidate of the Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos), continues to dispute the results. His calls since late October 2024 have led to nationwide demonstrations, drawing thousands of supporters into street protests. On Jan. 5, Mondlane announced his intention to return to Mozambique through Maputo International Airport (MPM) at 08:05 on Jan. 9. Mondlane has previously reiterated his intention to take office on the day of the presidential inauguration.
Authorities are also currently investigating Mondlane over losses caused by the demonstrations he allegedly instigated since late October. The latest bout on followed the Constitutional Council's announcement on Dec. 23 confirming that the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) party and its candidate, Daniel Chapo, had won the Oct. 9 general election. Vandalism targeting businesses, police outposts, and governmental buildings was reported nationwide, including in Maputo, Nacala, Nampula, and Beira. As of Jan. 6, NGO reports suggest at least 278 protesters may have been killed since the start of the unrest; authorities also reported that two police officers have been killed since Dec. 23.
Increased security is likely nationwide, especially in Maputo ahead of Mondlane's return and the presidential inauguration. Security measures may include checkpoints, increased patrolling in urban centers, border restrictions, internet and telecommunication blackouts, and curfews. Should Mondlane be arrested upon returning, protests are likely to erupt and intensify nationwide. Violence will likely concentrate in large urban areas - such as Beira, Maputo, Nacala, Nampula, Pemba, Quelimane, and other coastal or border cities - and in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa. In Maputo, potential protest hotspots include but are not limited to MPM, the President's offices, the Assembly of the Republic buildings, Frelimo offices, and the National Electoral Commission (CNE) offices; travel along the Kenneth Kaunda Avenue, Joaquin Chissano Avenue, and the N1/N2/N4 highways will likely be impeded. Incidents of looting could target large retail stores, foreign businesses, and mining compounds.
The security and protests may generate nationwide ground, maritime, and air travel disruptions. Power outages could temporarily unavailability of essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow. There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity increases during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals increase the risk of accidents at intersections, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night. Fuel shortages may affect business operations, public and private transport services, and ground shipping. Hoarding may exacerbate disruptions in some areas.
Some foreign diplomatic missions have warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements during such events.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through at least mid-January. Avoid all gatherings, political events, election-related activities, and concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly yellow clothes as they may be associated with the political opposition. Exercise caution near police offices, border posts, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for information on possible curfews, communication outages, and road conditions. Heed the advice of local authorities. Do not attempt to pass through police checkpoints without authorities' permission. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Reconfirm flights before departure. Reconfirm administrative and health appointments. Plan for increased employee absenteeism during protests. Plan accordingly for disruptions to freight and passenger travel across borders and through Mozambican ports. Plan for telecommunications and commercial operations. Consider alternative modes of communication for critical business operations. Ahead of power outages, identify business-critical functions that require a power supply. Power laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Consider stocking up on bottled water, fuel, and food essentials. Monitor announcements from the utility.
Mozambique has been experiencing unprecedented levels of civil unrest since its last general election on Oct. 9. On Oct. 24, preliminary results gave the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) and its candidate, Daniel Chapo, large victories in all three elections. On Dec. 23, the Constitutional Council largely confirmed the results, giving Chapo 65.2 percent of the vote, Frelimo 171 of 250 parliamentary seats, and all provincial majorities. Opposition parties, including Podemos, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), and Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), rejected the results. Mondlane and Podemos claim to have received over 53 percent of the presidential election votes and 138 out of the 250 seats in a parallel count.
Nationwide protests followed each announcement, mostly led by Podemos and Mondlane. Mondlane has successfully called for quasi-weekly strikes, shutdowns, protests near CNE and Frelimo offices, blocking highways and ports of entry, and more peaceful acts of resistance—such as singing the anthem in public at a certain time, banging pots, or blowing trumpets. In effect, the protests have been accompanied by incidents of arson, looting, and clashes, with police reportedly firing live ammunition to disperse protesters. The demonstrations have consistently disrupted ground, maritime, and air transport. Most significantly, recurrent skirmishes and looting in Ressano Garcia near the Lebombo border with South Africa have led to its intermittent closure. On Dec. 24, Airlink (4Z) and TAAG (DT) canceled flights to Mozambique, and Turkish Airlines (TK) on Dec. 26; flights appear to have since resumed.
Protest activity has also disrupted public utility provisions. On Dec. 7, pro-Mondlane protesters attacked the two power plants near Ressano Garcia, forcing the national utility Electricidade de Mocambique (EDM) to implement rolling power cuts impacting Maputo through Dec. 9. Prison riots have been reported in Maputo and Gaza provinces. On Dec. 25, possibly 6,000 inmates escaped from Matola's Machava Central Prison. The Maputo Central Hospital has warned of a critical shortage of personnel, food, and blood. Fuel shortages are also being reported in Maputo. At least six mining sites - two near Montepuez and four others in Balama, Marropino, Mavuco, and Moma - have been the targets of mobs since the start of the unrest
On Nov. 18, authorities announced they were investigating Mondlane to demand compensation for the damages caused by the protests.
