27 Dec 2024 | 12:12 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further disruptive protests, violence likely nationwide through early January following election results announcement /update 15
Further opposition protests, violence likely in Mozambique through early January after Constitutional Council confirms Frelimo victory.
Increased security, disruptions, and violence are likely through at least early January after the Constitutional Council confirmed the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) party's and its candidate Daniel Chapo’s victories in the Oct. 9 general election. Violence immediately followed the Council's Dec. 23 announcement, with authorities reporting 236 instances of vandalism targeting businesses, police outposts, and governmental buildings nationwide, including in Maputo, Nacala, Nampula, and Beira. Public transport disruptions have been reported. On Dec. 24, Airlink (4Z) and TAAG (DT) canceled flights to Mozambique, and Turkish Airlines (TK) on Dec. 26; flights appear to have since resumed. The Maputo Central Hospital has warned of a critical shortage of personnel, food, and blood. Fuel shortages are also being reported in Maputo. As of Dec. 27, NGO reports suggest at least 252 protesters may have been killed since the start of the unrest; authorities also reported two police officers have been killed since Dec. 23.
Venancio Mondlane, the exiled candidate of the lead opposition Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos), who came second, continues to dispute the results. Since late October, his calls have led to nationwide demonstrations, drawing thousands of supporters into street protests. On Dec. 26, he urged his supporters not to engage in vandalism while accusing authorities of allegedly encouraging violence to force the instauration of a state of emergency. On Dec. 23, Mondlane reiterated that he intended to take office on Jan. 15, when Chapo is meant to be sworn in. Mondlane is expected to call for additional protests.
Protests or counter-protests will likely draw thousands in the coming days. Protest activity will likely concentrate in large urban areas - such as Beira, Maputo, Nacala, Nampula, Pemba, Quelimane, and other coastal or border cities - and in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa. In Maputo, likely demonstration targets include Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) and National Electoral Commission (CNE) offices near Kenneth Kaunda Avenue, Joaquin Chissano Avenue, and the N1/N2 highways. Demonstrations could lead to road blockages and acts of arson; shutdowns could lead to business and public services closures. Trade unions may also call for strikes. Additional protests near borders or in airports could lead to closures and affect ground and air travel. Incidents of looting could target large retail stores, foreign businesses, and mining compounds. Increased security is likely nationwide, especially near protest locations. Security measures may include checkpoints, increased patrolling in urban centers, border restrictions, internet and telecommunication blackouts, and curfews. Violence between opposing party members or involving security services is likely and will pose an incidental danger to bystanders. Peripheral incidents of criminal violence, not necessarily connected with the election, are possible.
Power outages could temporarily unavailability of essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow. There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity increases during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals increase the risk of accidents at intersections, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night. Fuel shortages may affect business operations, public and private transport services, and ground shipping. Hoarding may exacerbate disruptions in some areas.
Some foreign diplomatic missions have warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements during such events.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through at least early January. Avoid all gatherings, political events, election-related activities, and concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly yellow clothes as they may be associated with the political opposition. Exercise caution near police offices, border posts, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for information on possible curfews, communication outages, and road conditions. Heed the advice of local authorities. Do not attempt to pass through police checkpoints without authorities' permission. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Reconfirm flights before departure. Reconfirm administrative and health appointments. Plan for increased employee absenteeism during protests. Plan accordingly for disruptions to freight and passenger travel across borders. Plan for telecommunications and commercial operations. Consider alternative modes of communication for critical business operations. Ahead of power outages, identify business-critical functions that require a power supply. Power laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Consider stocking up on bottled water, fuel, and food essentials. Monitor announcements from the utility.
On Oct. 9, Mozambican citizens voted to elect a new president, parliament, and regional governmental officials. Opposition parties called the process fraudulent before the election results were announced, and Mondlane claimed an early victory. On Oct. 24, the CNE announced Daniel Chapo, Frelimo's new leader, as president and gave Frelimo a parliamentary majority. Over half of registered voters abstained. On Dec. 23, the Constitutional Council confirmed both victors, giving Chapo 65.2 percent of the vote and Frelimo 171 of 250 parliamentary seats. Opposition parties, including Podemos, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), and Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), rejected and appealed the results.
Nationwide protests followed each announcement, mostly led by Podemos and Mondlane. On Oct. 21, a first strike followed the alleged political killing of two high-ranking Podemos members. On Oct. 24-25, a two-day nationwide shutdown was called in anticipation of the release of election results. Between Oct. 31-Nov. 7, he then called for nationwide protests near the CNE and Frelimo offices. Between Nov. 13-16, Mondlane asked protesters to specifically target economically significant locations, including Maputo, provincial capitals, ports, and borders. On Nov. 18, authorities announced they were investigating Mondlane to demand compensation for the damages caused by the protests. On Nov. 20-22, protests were more peaceful, with road blockages and travel disruptions reported across Maputo. On Nov. 23, Frelimo supporters held a counter-protest in Maputo in support of Chapo's electoral victory. On Nov. 27-29, protests led to road blockages, clashes, looting, and acts of minor arson. Between Dec. 4-11, protests resulted in the blocking of roads around Maputo, including the N1. On Dec. 7, pro-Mondlane protesters attacked the two power plants near Ressano Garcia, forcing the national utility Electricidade de Mocambique (EDM) to implement rolling power cuts impacting Maputo through Dec. 9. On Dec. 23, Mondlane asked supporters to halt all work and activities ahead of the Constitutional Court’s announcement of the definitive election results.
Other disruptive events included: on Oct. 27, an attack on a police office, also in Chalaua, during which at least one officer died; on Oct. 28, the invasion and destruction of a mining compound near Chalaua, Nampula Province; Nov. 5-9 skirmishes, road blockages, and looting in Ressano Garcia near the Lebombo border with South Africa leading to its closure; on Nov. 27, a protester was injured after being run over by a military vehicle; on Dec. 25, a jailbreak occurred in Matola's Machava Central Prison near Maputo leading to the escape of 6,000 prisoners. Two South African journalists were reportedly detained before being released on Nov. 15.
