Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Jan. 12 /update 203

Event

Military operations are continuing in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine as of Jan. 12. Intense fighting continues around Bakhmut in Donetsk Region, while Russian authorities claim to have taken control of nearby Soledar. In Moscow, General Gerasimov (the Chief of Defense Staff since 2012) has been nominated joint chief of the Ukraine operation, in a further reshuffle of senior military staff. As of Jan. 12, the UK and Poland confimed that they would send main battle tanks to Ukraine.

The Russian Federation Navy (RFN) sailed frigates, landing ships, and submarines from its base at Novorossiysk Jan. 11. The move may indicate further cruise missile strikes in coming days. The landing ships are likely to be used for logistic support for the occupied Crimean peninsula.

Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area. Moscow is continuing offensive operations in Donetsk Region with the immediate aim of capturing Bakhmut. Reports suggest Russian forces have extended their control over Soledar. Fighting is also ongoing south of Bakhmut in Opytne. Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces continue to assault Avdiivka and are fighting within Marinka but have not made any significant gains in recent days.

Ukraine's offensive activity remains focused in Luhansk Region. Combat is focused around the Svatove-Kreminna line, where both sides are engaged in several positional battles. No significant territory has changed hands in recent days. Russian forces continued artillery attacks along the front line further south in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Moscow is also conducting a campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine. Moscow launched major missile attacks Dec. 29 and 31, damaging critical infrastructure and resulting in utility outages in several regions; explosions were reported in city centers, including Kyiv, resulting in damage to residential buildings and civilian deaths. Russian attacks since Jan. 1 have increasingly utilized Iranian drones, which are more vulnerable to Ukrainian air defense systems resulting in fewer successful strikes on infrastructure targets. Moscow will almost certainly continue sporadic waves of attacks across Ukraine in the coming weeks; targets will include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Disruptions and Shortages
Cumulative damage to the power supply network continues to affect major cities. Following each airstrike on critical infrastructure, power restoration is achieved, but repairs become more complex. Ukrenergo, the national power company, continues to implement periodic restrictions on energy consumption, including rolling blackouts, impacting specific regions to stabilize the grid or carry out repairs. Ukrenergo, the national energy company, tightened energy usage restrictions nationwide Jan. 6; measures were temporarily eased in early January as warmer weather placed less stress on the energy grid. Short-notice disruptions to energy and water supplies due to damage to infrastructure are likely immediately following Russian airstrikes.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv. Passenger rail services between Kyiv and Kherson resumed Nov. 19, following the resumption of services between Kyiv and Mykolaiv Nov. 14. However, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Feb. 19. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 00:01-05:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 23:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking a major city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties.

Russia may seek to step-up counterattacks in the Luhansk Region to regain the offensive initiative. However, the situation in the Luhansk Region has remained static for several weeks, and Russian forces likely lack the combat potential to mount a major counteroffensive in the short term. Ukrainian forces in the region have largely conducted limited ground assaults in recent weeks while they continue to consolidate control over territory recaptured in recent months. Elsewhere, Moscow will likely seek to continue establishing effective defensive postures following coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, likely to conserve diminished missile stocks. Drones are more susceptible to Ukrainian air defense systems; most or all are shot down before hitting their targets. Nonetheless, Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages, and Ukrainian air defense systems are being forced to expend costly and finite resources repelling repeated drone attacks. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

The prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 reservists to the front lines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv will likely be able to achieve their overall objectives as winter weather sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service