Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Jan. 3 /update 200

Event

Military operations are continuing in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine as of Jan. 3. Ground combat has resumed after reported tactical pauses by Ukraine and Russia over the new year; activity remains focused in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions without significant change in territory or apparent objectives.

Russian forces are continuing their campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine. Moscow launched one of its largest attacks to date Dec. 29 involving at least 69 missiles and 23 drones of which Ukrainian officials claim to have intercepted 54 and 11 respectively. Infrastructure targets were damaged in several regions including Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, and Odesa resulting in significant utility disruptions and killing at least three people. A smaller barrage followed on Dec. 31 damaging residential buildings and killing one person in Kyiv, but this did not result in widespread power outages. Moscow has launched waves of drone attacks each day Dec. 31-Jan. 2 but Ukrainian officials claim air defense systems intercepted all drones. Continued Russian strikes across central, southern and eastern Ukraine are highly likely with Kyiv a principal target. Targets will likely include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Ukraine's offensive activity remains focused in Luhansk Region. Combat is focused around the Svatove-Kreminna line; there have been no significant territorial gains in recent days. Russian forces continue to launch sporadic counterattacks along the front line in this area. Russian offensive activity is concentrated in Donetsk Region, particularly around the settlements of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. Intense fighting is ongoing in those three locations; Bakhmut and Avdiivka remain under Ukrainian control while combat is ongoing in central Marinka. Reports suggest Russian troops retook territory lost south of Bakhmut, likely around Optyne, in recent days. Ukrainian officials confirmed it carried out a missile attack on a Russian barracks in Makiivka, Donetsk Region, Jan. 1. Russian authorities state the attack resulted in 63 deaths, while Ukrainian officials claim the attack killed around 400.

Elsewhere along the front, Russian forces continue to conduct defensive measures, particularly in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, including constructing defensive lines and fortifications. Ukrainian troops have continued to conduct precision strikes behind enemy lines, targeting force concentrations, command posts, and logistics.

Disruptions and Shortages
Cumulative damage to the power supply network continues to affect major cities. Following each air strike on critical infrastructure, power restoration is achieved, but repairs become more complex. Ukrenergo, the national power company, continues to implement periodic restrictions on energy consumption, including rolling blackouts, impacting specific regions in order to stabilize the grid or carry out repairs. Energy restrictions are reportedly eased in several areas amid warmer weather and rapid repairs coupled with limited damage in recent Russian air strikes; emergency outages remain a risk in Kyiv. Short-notice disruptions to energy and water supplies due to damage to infrastructure are likely immediately following Russian airstrikes.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv. Passenger rail services between Kyiv and Kherson resumed Nov. 19 following the resumption of services between Kyiv and Mykolaiv Nov. 14. However, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Feb. 19. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking a major city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties.

Russia may seek to step-up counterattacks in the Luhansk Region to regain the offensive initiative. However, the situation in the Luhansk Region has remained static for several weeks, and Russian forces likely lack the combat potential to mount a major counteroffensive in the short term. Ukrainian forces in the region have largely conducted limited ground assaults in recent weeks while they continue to consolidate control over territory recaptured in recent months. Elsewhere, Moscow will likely seek to continue establishing effective defensive postures following coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes the increase in air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Further waves of attack are likely in the coming weeks. Ukrainian air defense systems are improving and intercepting an increasing percentage of munitions; however, some missiles will inevitably strike their targets, and collateral damage to civilians and infrastructure remains a likely outcome of such attacks.

The prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv will likely be able to achieve their overall objectives before winter sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service