DRC: Clashes between M23 rebels and security forces likely to persist in North Kivu Province through end of February /update 1

Event

Fighting between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and suspected members of the M23 rebel group is likely to persist through at least the end of February in North Kivu Province. As of Feb. 9, clashes continue north of Sake, located about 25 km (15 miles) west of Goma. Rebels reportedly took control of several localities on the outskirt of Sake, including the Luhonga area, located about 10 km (6 miles) north of the city, forcing thousands to flee towards Goma and Minova, located south of Sake.

M23 rebels previously took control of the Kitchanga area, Masisi Territory, Jan. 26, causing traffic gridlock along the Butembo-Sake axis. The transport of goods was already severely disrupted north of Goma along the N2 road connecting Rutshuru to Goma after rebels took control of several localities in October. Reports indicate that some truck drivers driving from northern DRC towards Goma are using alternative roads in neighboring Uganda and Rwanda bordering DRC. In the event of the capture of Sake, the supply of goods towards Goma will likely be significantly disrupted from the north and the west.

The fresh clashes come after the M23 was required to withdraw from the territories it occupies under the terms of regional mediation efforts. The M23 rebels previously announced Jan. 27 that they had withdrawn from Kibumba and Rumangabo, located about 20 km (12 miles) north of Goma. As of Feb. 9, reports indicate that rebels remain active in the area.

Heightened security is almost certain in the affected area in the coming weeks. Further violence is also likely. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of security forces. Such demonstrations have been frequent in recent weeks.

Context

Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC, while tensions have increased between Rwanda and the DRC. In June 2022, the M23 captured the town of Bunagana in Rutshuru Territory and began marching toward Goma. Rebels took control of several localities along the roads connecting Butembo and Goma.

The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. In April, the group took part in a truce with the government; however, it did not attend peace talks launched between the government and armed groups in Kenya.

On Nov. 25, leaders of the East African Community (EAC) agreed on a cessation of hostilities in eastern DRC. Although the ceasefire conditions include the withdrawal of M23 rebels from occupied territories and their disarmament, the continued deployment of the EAC regional force, and the resumption of dialogue between the DRC and Rwanda, M23 rebels have continued their attacks in the eastern DRC. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in and around the impacted locations. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Reconfirm the status of public transportation, road routes and border crossings before departure.